Lucky streak keeps Noynoy on top
By Carmela Fonbuena, abs-cbnNews.com/ Newsbreak
Posted at 05/01/2010 5:46 PM | Updated as of 05/01/2010 7:54 PM
MANILA, Philippines—The rise of Senator Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino III from a low-key politician—who almost lost the 2007 senatorial elections—to what surveys say is the most popular presidential candidate is a result of pure luck.
The story, of course, begins with the death of his mother, former President Corazon Aquino, in August 2009. Seeing the outpouring of public sympathy toward Mrs. Aquino, her allies started egging Noynoy to run for president as early as her funeral.
Since Noynoy decided to run, he has never left the top spot in the surveys by 2 major polling firms—the Social Weather Stations (SWS) and Pulse Asia, which, until just before he joined the race, was owned by his relatives.
Noynoy got his highest rating at 44 points in the October 2009 Pulse Asia survey. His Liberal Party (LP) acknowledged it was “Cory Magic” at work.
He never recovered his 44% at the height of the euphoria, but he enjoys a big 19-point lead over his closest rivals in the latest survey. In Pulse Asia’s latest survey, conducted 2 weeks before May 10, Noynoy registered 39 points.
Senator Manuel Villar Jr. of the Nationalista Party (NP) and former President Joseph Estrada of the Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino (PMP) tied for 2nd place with 20 points.
“We are confident. Senator Aquino’s numbers seem to have solidified,” said LP campaign manager Florencio Abad.
“Cory Magic has never left Noynoy…. He’s a lucky guy. He’s also lucky because other parties are having problems—because of their own makings. May mga kapalpakan sila,” added De La Salle University political analyst Allen Surla.
February: Noynoy share’s Erap’s luck
It was not always an easy ride for Noynoy. In late January, Villar got close to his numbers. His 37 points was statistically tied with Villar’s 35 points.
For the LP, it was the worst time for Villar to catch up. The survey results were released shortly before the official start of the campaign period on February 10.
Villar was gaining momentum because of effective political advertising. “The ad ratio was something like 10 to 1. It was because of the sheer volume of his ads. He was heard. We were not being heard,” said Abad.
At the same time, some groups supporting Noynoy were arguing against using political advertising as a campaign tool. “Some people [wanted it to be] an alternative campaign and we should not do ads,” Abad recalled.
Abad said the debate was settled when the following SWS survey came out, showing Aquino and Villar still in statistical tie.
Meanwhile, the LP also attacked Villar on various issues such as his heavy spending on political advertising, his alleged coalition with President Arroyo and, most aggressively, the C-5 road controversy.
When Noynoy regained his lead in the following survey (Feb. 21-25), the LP ascribed it to the C-5 controversy. But they were wrong.
Analysis of the survey numbers show that it Estrada was eating a big chunk of Villar’s support base in Mindanao. (See "Erap, not C-5 caused Villar's survey drop")
Noynoy's numbers then were steady at 36%, but But Villar suffered a 6-point drop.
Estrada pulled a surprise when he gained 6 points, from 12 points in January to 18 points in February.
It was a result of the January decision of the Commission on Elections junking the disqualification cases against Estrada. It erased the doubts on voters' mind that their votes would go to waste if they would choose Estrada.
Cagayan de Oro Rep. Rufus Rodriguez said, who is PMP’s vice president for Mindanao, said the January survey didn’t capture this because Estrada’s political advertisements informing voters of the legal victory came out only in February.
Indirectly, Noynoy was a beneficiary of Estrada’s advantage.
It seems that Estrada continues to shrink Villar’s base in Mindanao. In the April 23-25 survey, Villar lost 7 more points in the region. Estrada gained 5 points, although it was equal to the error margin.
"We're not really surprised that President Estrada's ratings rose. We stuck to our strategy of going directly to the people, and they have realized that Estrada is the real leader of the poor,” said PMP spokesperson Ralph Calinisan.
March: Lakas defections, ‘not poor’ claims
It had been downhill for Villar since. In the Pulse Asia survey conducted March 21-28, he lost 4 more percentage points. It’s a total of 10 points decrease since he was statistically tied with Noynoy.
Noynoy, on the other hand, continues to benefit from the failures of his rivals to address issues against them.
A part of Noynoy’s luck, if it may be called that, is his poor track record. Unlike Villar—who has been a businessman, a House Speaker, and a Senate President—Noynoy has never held a major leadership position that would test his character.
Noynoy's record is clean because it’s blank. In his 12 years in Congress, he is yet to pass a single one of his major bills. In his 9 years as Tarlac congressman, in fact, the only law he passed was the one declaring as special holiday the foundation day of Tarlac City.
There was hardly any issue to hit Noynoy except his family’s failure to distribute to farmer-beneficiaries Hacienda Luisita, a 6,000-plus hectare estate that the Cojuangcos were supposed to have returned to government more than 4 decades ago. But it did not seem to resonate with the voters.
“It did not. We did a lot of focus group discussions (FGD) on it. It’s because they overloaded the issue. They entirely put the blame on Noynoy. They even accused him with the massacre,” said Abad.
Even years before the NP supporters brought up the issue of the 12 farmers and 2 children who were killed at the picket lines outside Hacienda Luisita, however, various reports had quoted farmer groups and witnesses saying that those who shot at the farmers were came from inside the hacienda and were known bodyguards of Noynoy.
Recently, NP camp tried to cast doubt on Noynoy’s ability to govern by circulating spurious psychological reports. They were immediately denied by the people supposedly involved in the evaluation.
What appears to be Villar’s strategy in the final days of the campaign period is to hit Noynoy’s poor track record and incompetence—directly in interviews and indirectly in ads.
With a number of issues hounding Villar, it is difficult to pin down what particular issue hurt Villar’s campaign.
Pulse Asia president Ronald Holmes said the “Villaroyo” tag may have hurt Villar in the March survey.
During the survey period, one of the biggest headlines was the defection of some of President Arroyo’s allies to the NP camp. It boosted LP’s allegation of the supposed coalition between President Arroyo and Villar.
Later in March, the resignation of administration bet former Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. resigned as chairman of the ruling party Lakas-Kabalikat ng Malayang Pilipino Christian Muslim Democrats (Lakas-Kampi CMD).
This happened after the survey was conducted, however.
Although Teodoro later denied it, news reports then exposed that his move was sparked by the call made by First Gentleman Jose Miguel Arroyo to Cebu Rep. Pablo Garcia Sr. to ask him to shift support to Villar. Cebu is the country’s biggest voting population with 2.2 million voters.
Other camps have also been attacking Villar’s character throughout the campaign period.
In March, newspaper columnists Solita Monsod of Phililppine Daily Inquirer, Lito Banayo of Malaya, and William Esposo of Philippine Star debunked Villar’s claim that he was poor, the foundation of his entire campaign.
(The 3 columnists had worked with the Cojuangcos before. Monsod was economic planning secretary during President Aquino's time, when her husband was chief elections commissioner. Banayo was involved in the Aquino-Laurel snap elections campaign in 1986, and was postal official during the Aquino administration. Esposo is with Noynoy's uncle, Peping Cojuangco, in the political group Council on Philippine Affairs.)
Surla said the claim that Villar didn't have dirt-poor beginnings had an impact on his campaign. “The problem is he over-dramatized his poverty. That did it for him,” he said.
To belie the allegations, Villar’s mother recently held a press conference to defend his son. She also appeared in advertisements. These developments have not been capture in the surveys.
April: Villar’s plunge
Noynoy’s numbers hardly moved. But Villar, who was hit by one controversy after another, continues to go down.
The April 23-25 surveys shows Villar is down with 20 points. He is now tied with Estrada for 2nd place.
Villar’s camp said the surveys numbers are a result of a concentrated black propaganda.
“In the past few weeks, we have seen intensified black propaganda and vicious attacks from both the Erap and Aquino camps,” said NP spokesman and senatorial candidate Gilbert Remulla said.
“Jamby, si Erap, si Gordon, and the Liberal Party, they’re all hitting Manny [Villar] at the same time. There has been a flurry of negative campaigning. It’s below the belt,” said another NP spokesman, Adel Tamano.
Among the key developments identified by Pulse Asia during the survey period are the following:
* Defections from Lakas-Kampi CMD to NP and LP
* Allegations made by Estrada and Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile that while serving Senate President in 2007, Villar used his position to pressure the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) to decide in his favor on a matter concerning the public offering of his real estate company’s shares.
Surla said the possibility of the numbers changing in the “last two minutes” of the campaign cannot be discounted, although the other camps will have to work double time.
“Based on statistics, the chances are getting slimmer for Villar. But statistics is just one dimension,” he said.
Surla said there are other factors that could affect the result of elections—local machinery, resources, and voter turnout among others.
Abad said they will not be complacent. “In Philippine politics, until you are proclaimed, you are never sure. A big question mark is the automated elections. You cannot be complacent,” he said. (abs-cbnNews.com/Newsbreak)
By Carmela Fonbuena, abs-cbnNews.com/ Newsbreak
Posted at 05/01/2010 5:46 PM | Updated as of 05/01/2010 7:54 PM
MANILA, Philippines—The rise of Senator Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino III from a low-key politician—who almost lost the 2007 senatorial elections—to what surveys say is the most popular presidential candidate is a result of pure luck.
The story, of course, begins with the death of his mother, former President Corazon Aquino, in August 2009. Seeing the outpouring of public sympathy toward Mrs. Aquino, her allies started egging Noynoy to run for president as early as her funeral.
Since Noynoy decided to run, he has never left the top spot in the surveys by 2 major polling firms—the Social Weather Stations (SWS) and Pulse Asia, which, until just before he joined the race, was owned by his relatives.
Noynoy got his highest rating at 44 points in the October 2009 Pulse Asia survey. His Liberal Party (LP) acknowledged it was “Cory Magic” at work.
He never recovered his 44% at the height of the euphoria, but he enjoys a big 19-point lead over his closest rivals in the latest survey. In Pulse Asia’s latest survey, conducted 2 weeks before May 10, Noynoy registered 39 points.
Senator Manuel Villar Jr. of the Nationalista Party (NP) and former President Joseph Estrada of the Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino (PMP) tied for 2nd place with 20 points.
“We are confident. Senator Aquino’s numbers seem to have solidified,” said LP campaign manager Florencio Abad.
“Cory Magic has never left Noynoy…. He’s a lucky guy. He’s also lucky because other parties are having problems—because of their own makings. May mga kapalpakan sila,” added De La Salle University political analyst Allen Surla.
February: Noynoy share’s Erap’s luck
It was not always an easy ride for Noynoy. In late January, Villar got close to his numbers. His 37 points was statistically tied with Villar’s 35 points.
For the LP, it was the worst time for Villar to catch up. The survey results were released shortly before the official start of the campaign period on February 10.
Villar was gaining momentum because of effective political advertising. “The ad ratio was something like 10 to 1. It was because of the sheer volume of his ads. He was heard. We were not being heard,” said Abad.
At the same time, some groups supporting Noynoy were arguing against using political advertising as a campaign tool. “Some people [wanted it to be] an alternative campaign and we should not do ads,” Abad recalled.
Abad said the debate was settled when the following SWS survey came out, showing Aquino and Villar still in statistical tie.
Meanwhile, the LP also attacked Villar on various issues such as his heavy spending on political advertising, his alleged coalition with President Arroyo and, most aggressively, the C-5 road controversy.
When Noynoy regained his lead in the following survey (Feb. 21-25), the LP ascribed it to the C-5 controversy. But they were wrong.
Analysis of the survey numbers show that it Estrada was eating a big chunk of Villar’s support base in Mindanao. (See "Erap, not C-5 caused Villar's survey drop")
Noynoy's numbers then were steady at 36%, but But Villar suffered a 6-point drop.
Estrada pulled a surprise when he gained 6 points, from 12 points in January to 18 points in February.
It was a result of the January decision of the Commission on Elections junking the disqualification cases against Estrada. It erased the doubts on voters' mind that their votes would go to waste if they would choose Estrada.
Cagayan de Oro Rep. Rufus Rodriguez said, who is PMP’s vice president for Mindanao, said the January survey didn’t capture this because Estrada’s political advertisements informing voters of the legal victory came out only in February.
Indirectly, Noynoy was a beneficiary of Estrada’s advantage.
It seems that Estrada continues to shrink Villar’s base in Mindanao. In the April 23-25 survey, Villar lost 7 more points in the region. Estrada gained 5 points, although it was equal to the error margin.
"We're not really surprised that President Estrada's ratings rose. We stuck to our strategy of going directly to the people, and they have realized that Estrada is the real leader of the poor,” said PMP spokesperson Ralph Calinisan.
March: Lakas defections, ‘not poor’ claims
It had been downhill for Villar since. In the Pulse Asia survey conducted March 21-28, he lost 4 more percentage points. It’s a total of 10 points decrease since he was statistically tied with Noynoy.
Noynoy, on the other hand, continues to benefit from the failures of his rivals to address issues against them.
A part of Noynoy’s luck, if it may be called that, is his poor track record. Unlike Villar—who has been a businessman, a House Speaker, and a Senate President—Noynoy has never held a major leadership position that would test his character.
Noynoy's record is clean because it’s blank. In his 12 years in Congress, he is yet to pass a single one of his major bills. In his 9 years as Tarlac congressman, in fact, the only law he passed was the one declaring as special holiday the foundation day of Tarlac City.
There was hardly any issue to hit Noynoy except his family’s failure to distribute to farmer-beneficiaries Hacienda Luisita, a 6,000-plus hectare estate that the Cojuangcos were supposed to have returned to government more than 4 decades ago. But it did not seem to resonate with the voters.
“It did not. We did a lot of focus group discussions (FGD) on it. It’s because they overloaded the issue. They entirely put the blame on Noynoy. They even accused him with the massacre,” said Abad.
Even years before the NP supporters brought up the issue of the 12 farmers and 2 children who were killed at the picket lines outside Hacienda Luisita, however, various reports had quoted farmer groups and witnesses saying that those who shot at the farmers were came from inside the hacienda and were known bodyguards of Noynoy.
Recently, NP camp tried to cast doubt on Noynoy’s ability to govern by circulating spurious psychological reports. They were immediately denied by the people supposedly involved in the evaluation.
What appears to be Villar’s strategy in the final days of the campaign period is to hit Noynoy’s poor track record and incompetence—directly in interviews and indirectly in ads.
With a number of issues hounding Villar, it is difficult to pin down what particular issue hurt Villar’s campaign.
Pulse Asia president Ronald Holmes said the “Villaroyo” tag may have hurt Villar in the March survey.
During the survey period, one of the biggest headlines was the defection of some of President Arroyo’s allies to the NP camp. It boosted LP’s allegation of the supposed coalition between President Arroyo and Villar.
Later in March, the resignation of administration bet former Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. resigned as chairman of the ruling party Lakas-Kabalikat ng Malayang Pilipino Christian Muslim Democrats (Lakas-Kampi CMD).
This happened after the survey was conducted, however.
Although Teodoro later denied it, news reports then exposed that his move was sparked by the call made by First Gentleman Jose Miguel Arroyo to Cebu Rep. Pablo Garcia Sr. to ask him to shift support to Villar. Cebu is the country’s biggest voting population with 2.2 million voters.
Other camps have also been attacking Villar’s character throughout the campaign period.
In March, newspaper columnists Solita Monsod of Phililppine Daily Inquirer, Lito Banayo of Malaya, and William Esposo of Philippine Star debunked Villar’s claim that he was poor, the foundation of his entire campaign.
(The 3 columnists had worked with the Cojuangcos before. Monsod was economic planning secretary during President Aquino's time, when her husband was chief elections commissioner. Banayo was involved in the Aquino-Laurel snap elections campaign in 1986, and was postal official during the Aquino administration. Esposo is with Noynoy's uncle, Peping Cojuangco, in the political group Council on Philippine Affairs.)
Surla said the claim that Villar didn't have dirt-poor beginnings had an impact on his campaign. “The problem is he over-dramatized his poverty. That did it for him,” he said.
To belie the allegations, Villar’s mother recently held a press conference to defend his son. She also appeared in advertisements. These developments have not been capture in the surveys.
April: Villar’s plunge
Noynoy’s numbers hardly moved. But Villar, who was hit by one controversy after another, continues to go down.
The April 23-25 surveys shows Villar is down with 20 points. He is now tied with Estrada for 2nd place.
Villar’s camp said the surveys numbers are a result of a concentrated black propaganda.
“In the past few weeks, we have seen intensified black propaganda and vicious attacks from both the Erap and Aquino camps,” said NP spokesman and senatorial candidate Gilbert Remulla said.
“Jamby, si Erap, si Gordon, and the Liberal Party, they’re all hitting Manny [Villar] at the same time. There has been a flurry of negative campaigning. It’s below the belt,” said another NP spokesman, Adel Tamano.
Among the key developments identified by Pulse Asia during the survey period are the following:
* Defections from Lakas-Kampi CMD to NP and LP
* Allegations made by Estrada and Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile that while serving Senate President in 2007, Villar used his position to pressure the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) to decide in his favor on a matter concerning the public offering of his real estate company’s shares.
Surla said the possibility of the numbers changing in the “last two minutes” of the campaign cannot be discounted, although the other camps will have to work double time.
“Based on statistics, the chances are getting slimmer for Villar. But statistics is just one dimension,” he said.
Surla said there are other factors that could affect the result of elections—local machinery, resources, and voter turnout among others.
Abad said they will not be complacent. “In Philippine politics, until you are proclaimed, you are never sure. A big question mark is the automated elections. You cannot be complacent,” he said. (abs-cbnNews.com/Newsbreak)
