INSIDER'S DIARY
And the Winners Are…
By Mong Palatino

May 19, 2010

Twelve senators have already been proclaimed by the Commission on Elections (Comelec). The new senators of the 15th Congress of the Philippines are:

1. Ramon 'Bong' Revilla
2. Jose 'Jinggoy' Estrada
3. Miriam Defensor-Santiago
4. Franklin Drilon
5. Juan Ponce Enrile
6. Pilar Juliana Cayetano
7. Ferdinand Marcos Jr.
8. Ralph Recto
9. Vicente Sotto III
10. Sergio Osmena III
11. Manuel Lapid
12. Teofisto Guingona III

Their mandate will end on 2016. Six of the 12 winners are incumbents, while four are former senators. Two are children of former presidents, three are children of former senators, and three are grandchildren of former senators of the Republic. Four are actors and five are lawyers. Seven are from Luzon Island, four are from the Visayas, and only one came from Mindanao. Nine are candidates of the opposition.

The top senatorial candidate received more than 18 million votes while the 12th senator garnered almost 10 million votes. Surprisingly, a TV/film star topped the senate race. No actor won in the 2007 senatorial elections.

Despite the automated elections, it took more than a week before Comelec was able to proclaim the winners in the senate race. But the proclamation for the new president and vice president has been further delayed since Congress has yet to convene a session to canvass the official results of the elections. The race for the vice presidency is expected to be hotly contested because the leading candidate is only ahead by a small margin.

Elections are already over, but the canvassing is not yet finished. There are even provinces that have yet to transmit the results of the elections. Special elections will be conducted in several municipalities in Mindanao. Analysts are worried that the delay in the transmission of results could further affect the credibility of the auto polls.

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Congress proclaims Aquino, Binay as new President, Vice-President
by Carmela Fonbuena, abs-cbnNEWS.com/ Newsbreak
Posted at 06/09/2010 3:21 PM | Updated as of 06/10/2010 11:17 AM

MANILA, Philippines – After over a week of wrangling over “null votes” and other alleged irregularities in the conduct of the May 10 elections, the joint session of Congress on Wednesday , June 9, finally convened to proclaim Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino IIIand Jejomar "Jojo" Binayas president-elect and vice-president-elect, respectively.

The Senate and the House of Representatives convened the joint session at 2:35 pm on June 9 in order to take up the report of the National Board of Canvassers (NBOC).

Shortly after session started, Senator Jinggoy Estrada read a statement from his father, former President Joseph Estrada, congratulating Aquino.

Afterwards, Senate majority floor leader Juan Miguel Zubiri and Senate minority floor leader Aquilino Pimentel sponsored the report of the Joint Committee on the Presidential and Vice-Presidential Canvass for the May 10, 2010 elections on behalf of the Senate. House majority floor leader Arthur Defensor and deputy majority floor leader Neptali Gonzales II sponsored the report on behalf of the House contingent.

With no objections to the approval of the canvassing committee report, it was approved by the joint session of Congress at 3:38 pm.

After the committee report and resolution were approved, Congress shortly suspended session to allow Aquino and Binay to join the plenary for their proclamation.
Historic elections

In his sponsorship speech, Zubiri noted results of the canvass which showed that Aquino, garnered a total of 15,208,678 votes with a lead of 5,720,841 over the second placer Estrada.

“On the other hand, Jejomar Cabauatan Binay obtained the highest number of votes for Vice-President with 14,645,574 votes with a lead of 727,084 votes over his closest opponent,” Zubiri said.

“After the historic automated elections, which awed, bewildered, amused and even confused both the electorate and the candidates, with the speed of counting of votes and transmitting the results by the machine we know now as the PCOS or Precinct Count Optical Scan machines, Congress will now give its seal of approval, a Constitutional requirement, to the winning Presidential and Vice-Presidential candidates,” Zubiri added in his sponsorship speech.

Fastest canvassing in history

Done 4 weeks after the May 10 polls, the proclamation of winners was the quickest in the history of the Philippines post-1986. The actual canvassing took only 8 days, beginning on May 27 when the first ballot box—for absentee voters from the Kingdom of Laos—was opened.

The last certificate of canvass (COC), from Lanao del Sur, was canvassed on Tuesday, June 8.

Aquino and Binay will take their respective oaths of office on June 30, the day the terms of office of President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo and Vice-President Noli de Castro end.
In the 2004 presidential elections, President Arroyo was proclaimed before dawn of June 23 or just a week before the Office of the President was vacated. It was a tight race between Arroyo who led her closest rival, the late actor Fernando Poe Jr., by around 1 million votes.

A year later, the "Hello, Garci" controversy erupted with Arroyo accused of cheating to win the elections. The scandal earned its moniker, “Hello, Garci,” from a wiretapped phone conversation between President Arroyo and then Commission on Elections (Comelec) Commissioner Virgilio Garcillano, where she asked about her lead in the election tally.

Arroyo refused to admit that the allegedly wiretapped conversation was authentic but apologized nonetheless for talking on the phone with a Comelec official. She said it was a "lapse of judgment."
Final Congressional Tally

Aquino's big margin

Aquino is the son of the late President Corazon Aquino, who led the restoration of democracy in the Philippines in 1986. Her death in August 2009 led to calls for her only son, an incumbent senator, to run for president.

Owing largely to the "Cory Magic," Aquino emerged victorious over 8 other candidates.

It was the vice-presidential race that was tight. Binay defeated Aquino's running mate, Senator Manuel "Mar" Roxas II, by a slim margin of 720,000 votes.

It's a double whammy for Roxas, the original Liberal Party standard-bearer. He slid down to the vice-presidential race to give way to Aquino's candidacy.

Roxas is mulling an election protest. His lawyers claimed "funny trends" in the results of the May polls, particularly the high number of "null votes" supposedly in the bailiwicks of Roxas. There were 2.6 million null votes, 3 times more than the lead of Binay.

Roxas lawyers moved to defer the canvassing of several provinces with high number of null votes but Congress, sitting as the NBOC, voted to deny it.

In response, the Binay camp said the high number of "null votes" was part of the birth pains of automated elections. They called for a review of the automated election system to make sure this will be addressed in the next elections. But they maintained that there was no proof that the null votes were votes for Roxas.

Zubiri said the small ovals could have been the reason for the big number of null votes. There could be at least 3 reasons for null votes: 1) the voters didn't vote for the position; 2) the voters voted for more than 2 candidates for vice-president; and, 3) they under-shaded or over-shaded the oval that the machine could not recognize them.

Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile said he expects the next elections would be automated again, and it would be smoother than this year.

Earlier, there were fears that canvassing will also be delayed because several congressmen have raised issues against the automated polls. But the NBOC ruled that it was not the proper venue for election protests.

"It was a cooperative work between the Speaker and I. The Speaker and I understood each other, tried as best as possible to be even-handed [and] fair, rendering justice to whoever is entitled to it or needs it. No one was a friend or foe," said Enrile.

"We also allowed everybody to say his piece, whether you are a lawyer or a member of the panel. We allowed you to speak and take reasonable time. The moment we see that what you are saying is not repetitious and it’s not meant to delay, we are very lenient in allowing each and everyone to say their piece and ask anything they want," added House Speaker Prospero Nograles.

Noy-Bi

The Liberal Party tandem of Aquino and Roxas was rocked by issues that a faction of Aquino's relatives junked Roxas to support the candidacy of Binay.

Binay and the Cojuangcos--Aquino's maternal family--have long been political allies. Binay was the first Officer-in-Charge (OIC)-mayor appointed by President Aquino after the 1986 People Power Revolution. He and his family have not left Makati city hall since.

Makati was also the regular venue of anti-President Arroyo protests, some of which were led by the late Mrs. Aquino.

While the family denies it, Aquino-Roxas supporter Fr. Eliseo “Jun” Mercado earlier told abs-cbnNEWS.com/Newsbreak that the camp of former President Corazon Aquino's younger brother, Jose "Peping" Cojuangco Jr., campaigned for Binay.

Mercado is a professor at the Notre Dame University in Cotabato City and founder of the Mindanao Leaders Coalition or Kusug Mindanaw.

"Ang dala ng mga Cojuangco ay Noy-Bi, not Noy-Mar (The Cojuangcos are carrying Noynoy-Binay, not Noynoy-Mar). They all came here [in Mindanao]. Tingting Cojuangco was here with Jun Simon," Mercado said in a previous phone interview.

"Of course, they still have their contacts during the time of Cory," Mercado added.

Margarita “Tingting” Cojuangco is Noynoy’s aunt. She is the wife of Jose “Peping” Cojuangco Jr., the younger brother of Mrs. Aquino, whose alleged deals and influence-peddling during her administration led a columnist to coin the word Kamag-anak Inc. (Relatives Incorporated).

Simon, on the other hand, is a member of Peping’s Council on Philippine Affairs (COPA). He was appointed by President Aquino as OIC Mayor of Quezon City in 1986.

For his part, Binay said he was not surprised that some relatives of Noynoy Aquino campaigned for him. – abs-cbnNEWS.com/ Newsbreak

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Final tally: Binay leads Roxas by 700,000 votes
By Maria Althea Teves, abs-cbnNEWS.com/ Newsbreak
Posted at 06/08/2010 3:08 PM | Updated as of 06/08/2010 6:10 PM
ANILA, Philippines (UPDATE) - It's final. Liberal Party (LP) standard-bearer Benigno Aquino III and Puwersa ng Masang Pilipino (PMP) vice-presidential candidate Jejomar Binay will be proclaimed as the country's next president and vice-president, respectively.
Final Congressional Tally

The final tally of the National Board of Canvassers showed Aquino with 15,208,678 votes, winning the presidential race with no surprise. His lead over second placer PMP presidential bet Joseph Estrada was 5,720,841 votes. Estrada garnered 9,487,837 votes.

Binay, Estrada's running mate, on the other hand, won the vice presidency with 14,645,574 votes in the final count. Aquino's running mate, Manuel Roxas II, was in close second place with 13,918,490 votes.

There were talks that Binay won because relatives of Aquino, particularly the Cojuangcos, campaigned for the Noy-Bi (Aquino-Binay) tandem and not the LP tandem, especially in Mindanao. (Read: Peping camp campaigned for Noy-Bi)


The proclamation for president and vice-president has been scheduled on Wednesday. Senate Majority Leader Juan Miguel Zubiri yesterday said that it would be held at 2 pm.

Aquino had 15,072,053 votes in the June 7 tally while Estrada was 5 million votes behind with 9,471,029. Only the province of Lanao del Sur had to be canvassed on the last day.

National canvassing resumed at 2:14 p.m. on Tuesday.

It took Congress 1 hour and 10 minutes to canvass the votes from Lanao del Sur, a province with a reputation for being one of the cheating capitals in Muslim Mindanao. The province recently conducted special elections in 28 precincts.

After all the votes were counted, House Speaker Prospero Nograles said: "That's the last COC."



Aquino an obvious winner
Aquino was the obvious winner even before the Congress, sitting as the NBOC, started canvassing votes for President and Vice President.

Partial tally of the Commission on Elections, before the Lanao del Sur votes were considered, showed that his lead over Estrada was over 5 million votes.

Aquino even won in San Juan, Estrada's home city, with 22,225 votes against the former president who also served as San Juan mayor for over 20 years. Estrada received 21,341 votes in San Juan.

In Cebu, a bailiwick of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, Aquino won with 759,938 votes.

This was achieved despite the fact that some members of the powerful Garcia family shifted their support to Nacionalista Party standard-bearer Manuel Villar. Cebu Governor Gwendolyn Garcia remained with the Lakas-Kampi.

Administration standard-bearer Gilberto Teodoro Jr. finished in second place in Cebu with 344,783 votes while Villar was in third with 200,287 votes.

Cebu is the country's biggest voting province with 2.2 million registered voters. (Read: Lakas-Kampi defections: 'Gloriaquino' or 'Villaroyo'?)

Tight VP race
Last Thursday, the tight race between Binay and Roxas led Congress to decide that canvassing would not be terminated.

The canvassing on June 3 ended with Binay leading with 640,000 votes over Roxas, lower than his earlier canvassing lead of 800,000. (Read: Binay's lead over Roxas -- Congress)


Votes from some of the provinces and cities canvassed in the last days gave Binay a bigger margin. His lead in the provinces of North Cotabato, Batangas, Quezon City, Davao del Sur, Cagayan de Oro, Sultan Kudarat and Davao, Pasay and Makati cities ranged from around 20,000 to more than 100,000 votes.

Roxas led in Southern Leyte, Pampanga, Capiz, Marikina City, Cebu City and Surigao del Sur by thousands of votes.

Last Thursday, Binay's lead was only around 640,000. In June 2, when the NBOC suspended canvassing, the vice-presidential race was still very tight with Binay leading by around 120,00 votes over Roxas.

Poll fraud?
The Roxas camp claimed poll fraud in the vice-presidential contest owing to the higher incidence of null votes for vice-president. Binay's camp, however, countered that Congress is not a venue for investigating null votes. (Read: Roxas claims 'Garci' touched PCOS and Binay camp: Congress not venue for null votes)
Binay's camp initally said that they were looking to win with a 930,000 margin. They claimed that the Makati mayor would win fair and square since he won in 14 of the 17 regions.

They scored the LP camp for trying to condition the minds of the people into thinking that Binay cheated. (Read: Binay camp sees 930K winning margin)
Before the NBOC could canvass the Lanao del Sur votes on Tuesday, June 8, Roxas' lawyer Joey Tenefrancia objected to the opening the COCs from the province, raising a number of observations.

He said Roxas received 10 votes or less in 600 plus precincts, 40% of which are from Lanao del Sur, and zero to one votes in 94 clustered precincts, 64.66% of which were in the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) where Binay received majority of the votes. He also noted that those areas in the ARMM have an unusually high voter turn out of 97%.

On Monday night, Tenefrancia said he was disappointed that Congress did not pay attention to their concerns when he claimed that some precincts showed "statistical impossibilities" that favored Binay.

"Senator Roxas has sought to ensure that the true will of the electorate will be upheld. We have consistently manifested and moved that an accurate and complete count of the votes be conducted," Tenefrancia said before Congress before it suspended session on Tuesday.

The Roxas camp confirmed that they are planning to challenge the results of the vice presidential elections. - abs-cbnNEWS.com/ Newsbreak

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"If only for this, you have my high respect"

05/11/2010 | 11:13 AM
4 presidential bets concede defeat, congratulate Noynoy

(Updated 4:54 p.m.) As the picture of a Noynoy Aquino administration becomes clearer, four of his rivals for the presidency on Tuesday threw in the towel as they congratulated him for what seems like his impending victory.

First to admit defeat was Aquino’s colleague in the Senate and fiercest rival to the presidency during the campaign period, Nacionalista Party’s Manny Villar Jr.

"Humaharap ako sa inyo ngayon upang tanggapin ang pasyang ito. Upang igalang ang boses ng sambayanang Pilipino (I now face you all to admit my defeat). I congratulate Senator Noynoy Aquino on his victory. The challenges he and our country faces are enormous and we should all work together," he said, reading a prepared statement during a press conference in Mandaluyong City.

Villar's move earned him admiration from the Commission on Elections (Comelec).

"The commission expresses its deep admiration for Senator Manuel Villar for his act of statesmanship for conceding the elections," said Comelec chairman Jose Melo at a press briefing Tuesday afternoon.

Sen. Richard Gordon of Bagumbayan, Ang Kapatiran’s JC de los Reyes, and Lakas-Kampi-CMD's Gilberto Teodoro Jr. followed Villar's steps. In a statement posted on his Facebook account, Gordon congratulated Aquino for his "spectacular victory" and called upon the nation to unite and support the new administration.

"We accept the will of the people. Today, we have a victory for democracy with the successful exercise of our first nationwide automated election despite naysayers and doubters," said Gordon.

In a text message to reporters, De los Reyes said that although Aquino’s platforms differ from his, he would still "support his government in other reform efforts we have in common."

Teodoro, who is Aquino's cousin, said he is happy with the results of the elections.

According to GMA Network's partial and unofficial tally as of 4:50 p.m. on Tuesday, Aquino remained at the top spot with 13,036,271 votes. Villar ranked third with 4,680,580; Teodoro at 4th with 3,470,136; Gordon at sixth place with 446,203; and De los Reyes at ninth with 37,726.

Thank you’s

Villar thanked his party mates at the Nacionalista Party and supporters who supported his presidential bid, and said he would continue working for the welfare of the poor.

"Bagama’t ako ay hindi pinalad, ang aking pangarap na tapusin ang kahirapan ay hindi pa nagwawakas. Ito ay aking ipagpapatuloy bagama’t sa ibang paraan (Although I didn’t win, my efforts to end poverty in this country will continue)," he said in a sober tone.

Villar, a self-made billionaire, also thanked his supporters and volunteers who helped him through the campaign. He, however, expressed sadness about the allegations and negative propaganda that have hounded him throughout his campaign.

"Ako ay naniniwala na sa darating na mga araw ako ay mabibigyan ng pagkakataon na linisin ang aking pangalan upang maliwanagan ang ating mga kababayan. Yan ay mahalaga sa akin higit sa anupamang bagay," he said.

(I believe that soon I’ll be given a chance to clear my name before the public. That’s the most important thing to me.)

Villar smiled but declined to take questions from the reporters, leaving the Nacionalista Party headquarters immediately after the press briefing.

Life after campaign

Teodoro, a former lawmaker and Defense secretary, said he has no plans of staying in politics, adding that he would rather return to being a family man. “Malaki ang utang ko sa kanila (I now owed a lot to my family). I will go back to being a good husband, a good father," he said.

“I have served my country the best I could. I don't think anyone can ask more of me," he added. He also dismissed calls for him to run for senator in the 2013 midterm elections.

Teodoro thanked his supporters whom he said did not support him but his idea of national unity and positivism. He said he is not blaming anybody for his defeat.

Gordon likewise thanked his supporters, especially his volunteers particularly "those who gave up their limited resources as a manifestation of trust in his brand of leadership and track record."

"I ran a very truthful, straightforward and candid campaign and thought we could run on the basis of our platform, track record and volunteerism," he said. — with Carmela Lapeña, Aie B. See, and Kim Tan/LBG/RSJ/KBK, GMANews.TV

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05/11/2010 | 04:26 PM
Gibo admits defeat to cousin Noynoy
CARMELA LAPEÑA, GMANews.TV

Administration bet Gilberto “Gibo" Teodoro Jr. on Tuesday afternoon joined the ranks of presidential aspirants who conceded defeat to his cousin, Liberal Party’s Sen. Benigno “Noynoy" Aquino III.

“Bagama’t hindi pa official, mukhang si Senator Aquino na (Although it’s not yet official, I think Senator Aquino is already the winner in the elections)," Teodoro said during a press briefing at the Lakas-Kampi-CMD headquarters in Greenhills, San Juan.

“I am so far happy with the results [of the elections]," he added.

Partial elections results showed Teodoro at fourth place behind Aquino, former President Joseph Estrada (Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino) and Sen. Manny Villar Jr. (Nacionalista Party).

As of 4:15 p.m., the GMANews.TV partial and unofficial tally on presidential aspirants showed Teodoro with 3,470,136 votes compared to Aquino’s 13,036,271; Estrada’s 8,345,826; and Villar’s 4,680,580.

Before Teodoro, Villar, Richard Gordon (Bagumbayan) and JC de los Reyes (Ang Kapatiran) had also admitted their defeat to Aquino, son of the late President Corazon Aquino and slain Sen. Benigno “Ninoy" Aquino Jr.

Teodoro, a former lawmaker and Defense secretary, said he has no plans of staying in politics, adding that he would rather return to being a family man. “Malaki ang utang ko sa kanila (I now owed a lot to my family). I will go back to being a good husband, a good father," he said.

“I have served my country the best I could. I don't think anyone can ask more of me," he added. He also dismissed calls for him to run for senator in the 2013 midterm elections.

Teodoro thanked his supporters whom he said did not support him but his idea of national unity and positivism. He said he is not blaming anybody for his defeat.

“I did not fight for a political position for myself but for an idea. What can we do right for the country? Winning or losing is secondary. We fight for an idea—an idea of competence. Basic education reform, college graduate opportunities for every family, food security, genuine sustainable agrarian reform, localized peace processes, strong foreign relations, and several others," he said.

He also thanked the media which he said was mostly supportive of him. “Those in front of me, you have been fair. But those not here, I’ll have to reserve my judgment."

Teodoro said he has not spoken with President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo about his plans after the elections. —KBK, GMANews.TV

05/11/2010 | 03:44 PM
Gordon concedes to Noynoy

Bagumbayan standard-bearer Richard "Dick" Gordon on Tuesday became the third presidential aspirant to concede defeat to Liberal Party’s Benigno “Noynoy" Aquino III.

In a statement posted on his official Facebook page, Gordon congratulated Aquino on his “spectacular victory" and called upon the nation to unite and support the new administration.

“We accept the will of the people," said Gordon who, as of 3:40 p.m., ranked 6th (446,203 votes) among nine presidential aspirants in GMANews.TV’s partial and unofficial tally.

“I ran a very truthful, straightforward and candid campaign and thought we could run on the basis of our platform, track record and volunteerism," he added in admitting his defeat.

He also said he would like to congratulate all the winners and pray that they serve the country well.

Gordon thanked his supporters, especially his volunteers and “those who gave up their limited resources as a manifestation of trust in his brand of leadership and track record."

Above all, Gordon expressed exhilaration that the country’s first nationwide automated elections on Monday went well despite glitches in the machines used.

“Today, we have a victory for democracy with the successful exercise of our first nationwide automated election despite naysayers and doubters," he said. —Carmela Lapeña/KBK, GMANews.TV

05/11/2010 | 01:08 PM
Ang Kapatiran's JC de los Reyes concedes to Noynoy

Ang Kapatiran Party Presidential candidate John Carlos de los Reyes has conceded to Sen. Benigno"Noynoy" Aquino III of the Liberal Party, a day after the historic nationwide automation was held.

"I conceded as to the electoral count but not as to the platforms I was tasked to push," de los Reyes said in a text message sent to his party's media officer.

"Sen. Aquino is not one with us in these radical reform we need for our country, but I will support his government in other reform efforts we have in common," the text added.

De los Reyes is the youngest among the nine presidential contenders.

His party, which promotes the social teachings of the church, has been supported by several bishops all over the country.

De los Reyes lagged behind pre-election surveys conducted by pollsters Pulse Asia and Social Weather Stations. - RJAB Jr., GMANews.TV

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Erap overtakes Villar, Binay edges Loren: poll
abs-cbnNEWS.com
Posted at 05/03/2010 10:34 AM | Updated as of 05/03/2010 10:38 AM

MANILA, Philippines – Former President Joseph “Erap” Estrada has overtaken Sen. Manuel “Manny” Villar, Jr. to take second place in the presidential race, according to the latest Manila Standard Today (MST) pre-election survey.

The survey, which interviewed 2,500 registered voters nationwide from April 25-27, showed Liberal Party standard-bearer Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III in the lead with 38%, which is 16 percentage points above Estrada's rating of 22%. Villar was in 3rd place with 20%.

According to MST resident pollster Pedro Laylo, the negative attacks on Villar have taken a toll on his survey performance.

Other presidential bets, meantime, got single digit results: Gilbert “Gibo” Teodoro, Jr. (9%), Bro. Eddie Villanueva (3%) and Sen. Richard “Dick” Gordon (2%).

The survey had a margin of error of plus-minus 2%.

The new survey came less than a week after private pollster Pulse Asia released the results of its own pre-election survey. In the April 23-25 survey, Aquino gained 2 percentage points with 39% support, compared to 20% support for both Estrada and Villar.

Meanwhile, in the vice-presidential survey, Laylo said Makati Mayor Jejomar “Jojo” Binay has pulled away from Sen. Loren Legarda and is reportedly setting his sights on frontrunner Sen. Manuel “Mar” Roxas II.

Roxas still led the pack with 38% while Binay is at 28%. Legarda slipped to 3rd place with 20% followed by Edu Manzano (3%) and Bayani Fernando (2%). All the other candidates had ratings of 1% or lower.

The survey said 6% of voters were undecided about their choice for president while 7% were undecided on their vice-presidential bet.

Binay earlier surged past Legarda in the April 23-25 Pulse Asia survey. – With a report from Ces Drilon, ABS-CBN News

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Lucky streak keeps Noynoy on top
By Carmela Fonbuena, abs-cbnNews.com/ Newsbreak
Posted at 05/01/2010 5:46 PM | Updated as of 05/01/2010 7:54 PM

MANILA, Philippines—The rise of Senator Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino III from a low-key politician—who almost lost the 2007 senatorial elections—to what surveys say is the most popular presidential candidate is a result of pure luck.

The story, of course, begins with the death of his mother, former President Corazon Aquino, in August 2009. Seeing the outpouring of public sympathy toward Mrs. Aquino, her allies started egging Noynoy to run for president as early as her funeral.

Since Noynoy decided to run, he has never left the top spot in the surveys by 2 major polling firms—the Social Weather Stations (SWS) and Pulse Asia, which, until just before he joined the race, was owned by his relatives.

Noynoy got his highest rating at 44 points in the October 2009 Pulse Asia survey. His Liberal Party (LP) acknowledged it was “Cory Magic” at work.

He never recovered his 44% at the height of the euphoria, but he enjoys a big 19-point lead over his closest rivals in the latest survey. In Pulse Asia’s latest survey, conducted 2 weeks before May 10, Noynoy registered 39 points.

Senator Manuel Villar Jr. of the Nationalista Party (NP) and former President Joseph Estrada of the Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino (PMP) tied for 2nd place with 20 points.

“We are confident. Senator Aquino’s numbers seem to have solidified,” said LP campaign manager Florencio Abad.

“Cory Magic has never left Noynoy…. He’s a lucky guy. He’s also lucky because other parties are having problems—because of their own makings. May mga kapalpakan sila,” added De La Salle University political analyst Allen Surla.

February: Noynoy share’s Erap’s luck

It was not always an easy ride for Noynoy. In late January, Villar got close to his numbers. His 37 points was statistically tied with Villar’s 35 points.

For the LP, it was the worst time for Villar to catch up. The survey results were released shortly before the official start of the campaign period on February 10.

Villar was gaining momentum because of effective political advertising. “The ad ratio was something like 10 to 1. It was because of the sheer volume of his ads. He was heard. We were not being heard,” said Abad.

At the same time, some groups supporting Noynoy were arguing against using political advertising as a campaign tool. “Some people [wanted it to be] an alternative campaign and we should not do ads,” Abad recalled.

Abad said the debate was settled when the following SWS survey came out, showing Aquino and Villar still in statistical tie.

Meanwhile, the LP also attacked Villar on various issues such as his heavy spending on political advertising, his alleged coalition with President Arroyo and, most aggressively, the C-5 road controversy.

When Noynoy regained his lead in the following survey (Feb. 21-25), the LP ascribed it to the C-5 controversy. But they were wrong.

Analysis of the survey numbers show that it Estrada was eating a big chunk of Villar’s support base in Mindanao. (See "Erap, not C-5 caused Villar's survey drop")

Noynoy's numbers then were steady at 36%, but But Villar suffered a 6-point drop.

Estrada pulled a surprise when he gained 6 points, from 12 points in January to 18 points in February.

It was a result of the January decision of the Commission on Elections junking the disqualification cases against Estrada. It erased the doubts on voters' mind that their votes would go to waste if they would choose Estrada.

Cagayan de Oro Rep. Rufus Rodriguez said, who is PMP’s vice president for Mindanao, said the January survey didn’t capture this because Estrada’s political advertisements informing voters of the legal victory came out only in February.

Indirectly, Noynoy was a beneficiary of Estrada’s advantage.

It seems that Estrada continues to shrink Villar’s base in Mindanao. In the April 23-25 survey, Villar lost 7 more points in the region. Estrada gained 5 points, although it was equal to the error margin.

"We're not really surprised that President Estrada's ratings rose. We stuck to our strategy of going directly to the people, and they have realized that Estrada is the real leader of the poor,” said PMP spokesperson Ralph Calinisan.

March: Lakas defections, ‘not poor’ claims

It had been downhill for Villar since. In the Pulse Asia survey conducted March 21-28, he lost 4 more percentage points. It’s a total of 10 points decrease since he was statistically tied with Noynoy.

Noynoy, on the other hand, continues to benefit from the failures of his rivals to address issues against them.

A part of Noynoy’s luck, if it may be called that, is his poor track record. Unlike Villar—who has been a businessman, a House Speaker, and a Senate President—Noynoy has never held a major leadership position that would test his character.

Noynoy's record is clean because it’s blank. In his 12 years in Congress, he is yet to pass a single one of his major bills. In his 9 years as Tarlac congressman, in fact, the only law he passed was the one declaring as special holiday the foundation day of Tarlac City.

There was hardly any issue to hit Noynoy except his family’s failure to distribute to farmer-beneficiaries Hacienda Luisita, a 6,000-plus hectare estate that the Cojuangcos were supposed to have returned to government more than 4 decades ago. But it did not seem to resonate with the voters.

“It did not. We did a lot of focus group discussions (FGD) on it. It’s because they overloaded the issue. They entirely put the blame on Noynoy. They even accused him with the massacre,” said Abad.

Even years before the NP supporters brought up the issue of the 12 farmers and 2 children who were killed at the picket lines outside Hacienda Luisita, however, various reports had quoted farmer groups and witnesses saying that those who shot at the farmers were came from inside the hacienda and were known bodyguards of Noynoy.

Recently, NP camp tried to cast doubt on Noynoy’s ability to govern by circulating spurious psychological reports. They were immediately denied by the people supposedly involved in the evaluation.

What appears to be Villar’s strategy in the final days of the campaign period is to hit Noynoy’s poor track record and incompetence—directly in interviews and indirectly in ads.

With a number of issues hounding Villar, it is difficult to pin down what particular issue hurt Villar’s campaign.

Pulse Asia president Ronald Holmes said the “Villaroyo” tag may have hurt Villar in the March survey.

During the survey period, one of the biggest headlines was the defection of some of President Arroyo’s allies to the NP camp. It boosted LP’s allegation of the supposed coalition between President Arroyo and Villar.

Later in March, the resignation of administration bet former Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. resigned as chairman of the ruling party Lakas-Kabalikat ng Malayang Pilipino Christian Muslim Democrats (Lakas-Kampi CMD).

This happened after the survey was conducted, however.

Although Teodoro later denied it, news reports then exposed that his move was sparked by the call made by First Gentleman Jose Miguel Arroyo to Cebu Rep. Pablo Garcia Sr. to ask him to shift support to Villar. Cebu is the country’s biggest voting population with 2.2 million voters.

Other camps have also been attacking Villar’s character throughout the campaign period.

In March, newspaper columnists Solita Monsod of Phililppine Daily Inquirer, Lito Banayo of Malaya, and William Esposo of Philippine Star debunked Villar’s claim that he was poor, the foundation of his entire campaign.

(The 3 columnists had worked with the Cojuangcos before. Monsod was economic planning secretary during President Aquino's time, when her husband was chief elections commissioner. Banayo was involved in the Aquino-Laurel snap elections campaign in 1986, and was postal official during the Aquino administration. Esposo is with Noynoy's uncle, Peping Cojuangco, in the political group Council on Philippine Affairs.)

Surla said the claim that Villar didn't have dirt-poor beginnings had an impact on his campaign. “The problem is he over-dramatized his poverty. That did it for him,” he said.

To belie the allegations, Villar’s mother recently held a press conference to defend his son. She also appeared in advertisements. These developments have not been capture in the surveys.

April: Villar’s plunge

Noynoy’s numbers hardly moved. But Villar, who was hit by one controversy after another, continues to go down.

The April 23-25 surveys shows Villar is down with 20 points. He is now tied with Estrada for 2nd place.

Villar’s camp said the surveys numbers are a result of a concentrated black propaganda.

“In the past few weeks, we have seen intensified black propaganda and vicious attacks from both the Erap and Aquino camps,” said NP spokesman and senatorial candidate Gilbert Remulla said.

“Jamby, si Erap, si Gordon, and the Liberal Party, they’re all hitting Manny [Villar] at the same time. There has been a flurry of negative campaigning. It’s below the belt,” said another NP spokesman, Adel Tamano.

Among the key developments identified by Pulse Asia during the survey period are the following:

* Defections from Lakas-Kampi CMD to NP and LP
* Allegations made by Estrada and Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile that while serving Senate President in 2007, Villar used his position to pressure the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) to decide in his favor on a matter concerning the public offering of his real estate company’s shares.

Surla said the possibility of the numbers changing in the “last two minutes” of the campaign cannot be discounted, although the other camps will have to work double time.

“Based on statistics, the chances are getting slimmer for Villar. But statistics is just one dimension,” he said.

Surla said there are other factors that could affect the result of elections—local machinery, resources, and voter turnout among others.

Abad said they will not be complacent. “In Philippine politics, until you are proclaimed, you are never sure. A big question mark is the automated elections. You cannot be complacent,” he said. (abs-cbnNews.com/Newsbreak)

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