INSIDER'S DIARY
And the Winners Are…
By Mong Palatino

May 19, 2010

Twelve senators have already been proclaimed by the Commission on Elections (Comelec). The new senators of the 15th Congress of the Philippines are:

1. Ramon 'Bong' Revilla
2. Jose 'Jinggoy' Estrada
3. Miriam Defensor-Santiago
4. Franklin Drilon
5. Juan Ponce Enrile
6. Pilar Juliana Cayetano
7. Ferdinand Marcos Jr.
8. Ralph Recto
9. Vicente Sotto III
10. Sergio Osmena III
11. Manuel Lapid
12. Teofisto Guingona III

Their mandate will end on 2016. Six of the 12 winners are incumbents, while four are former senators. Two are children of former presidents, three are children of former senators, and three are grandchildren of former senators of the Republic. Four are actors and five are lawyers. Seven are from Luzon Island, four are from the Visayas, and only one came from Mindanao. Nine are candidates of the opposition.

The top senatorial candidate received more than 18 million votes while the 12th senator garnered almost 10 million votes. Surprisingly, a TV/film star topped the senate race. No actor won in the 2007 senatorial elections.

Despite the automated elections, it took more than a week before Comelec was able to proclaim the winners in the senate race. But the proclamation for the new president and vice president has been further delayed since Congress has yet to convene a session to canvass the official results of the elections. The race for the vice presidency is expected to be hotly contested because the leading candidate is only ahead by a small margin.

Elections are already over, but the canvassing is not yet finished. There are even provinces that have yet to transmit the results of the elections. Special elections will be conducted in several municipalities in Mindanao. Analysts are worried that the delay in the transmission of results could further affect the credibility of the auto polls.

Congress proclaims Aquino, Binay as new President, Vice-President
by Carmela Fonbuena, abs-cbnNEWS.com/ Newsbreak
Posted at 06/09/2010 3:21 PM | Updated as of 06/10/2010 11:17 AM

MANILA, Philippines – After over a week of wrangling over “null votes” and other alleged irregularities in the conduct of the May 10 elections, the joint session of Congress on Wednesday , June 9, finally convened to proclaim Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino IIIand Jejomar "Jojo" Binayas president-elect and vice-president-elect, respectively.

The Senate and the House of Representatives convened the joint session at 2:35 pm on June 9 in order to take up the report of the National Board of Canvassers (NBOC).

Shortly after session started, Senator Jinggoy Estrada read a statement from his father, former President Joseph Estrada, congratulating Aquino.

Afterwards, Senate majority floor leader Juan Miguel Zubiri and Senate minority floor leader Aquilino Pimentel sponsored the report of the Joint Committee on the Presidential and Vice-Presidential Canvass for the May 10, 2010 elections on behalf of the Senate. House majority floor leader Arthur Defensor and deputy majority floor leader Neptali Gonzales II sponsored the report on behalf of the House contingent.

With no objections to the approval of the canvassing committee report, it was approved by the joint session of Congress at 3:38 pm.

After the committee report and resolution were approved, Congress shortly suspended session to allow Aquino and Binay to join the plenary for their proclamation.
Historic elections

In his sponsorship speech, Zubiri noted results of the canvass which showed that Aquino, garnered a total of 15,208,678 votes with a lead of 5,720,841 over the second placer Estrada.

“On the other hand, Jejomar Cabauatan Binay obtained the highest number of votes for Vice-President with 14,645,574 votes with a lead of 727,084 votes over his closest opponent,” Zubiri said.

“After the historic automated elections, which awed, bewildered, amused and even confused both the electorate and the candidates, with the speed of counting of votes and transmitting the results by the machine we know now as the PCOS or Precinct Count Optical Scan machines, Congress will now give its seal of approval, a Constitutional requirement, to the winning Presidential and Vice-Presidential candidates,” Zubiri added in his sponsorship speech.

Fastest canvassing in history

Done 4 weeks after the May 10 polls, the proclamation of winners was the quickest in the history of the Philippines post-1986. The actual canvassing took only 8 days, beginning on May 27 when the first ballot box—for absentee voters from the Kingdom of Laos—was opened.

The last certificate of canvass (COC), from Lanao del Sur, was canvassed on Tuesday, June 8.

Aquino and Binay will take their respective oaths of office on June 30, the day the terms of office of President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo and Vice-President Noli de Castro end.
In the 2004 presidential elections, President Arroyo was proclaimed before dawn of June 23 or just a week before the Office of the President was vacated. It was a tight race between Arroyo who led her closest rival, the late actor Fernando Poe Jr., by around 1 million votes.

A year later, the "Hello, Garci" controversy erupted with Arroyo accused of cheating to win the elections. The scandal earned its moniker, “Hello, Garci,” from a wiretapped phone conversation between President Arroyo and then Commission on Elections (Comelec) Commissioner Virgilio Garcillano, where she asked about her lead in the election tally.

Arroyo refused to admit that the allegedly wiretapped conversation was authentic but apologized nonetheless for talking on the phone with a Comelec official. She said it was a "lapse of judgment."
Final Congressional Tally

Aquino's big margin

Aquino is the son of the late President Corazon Aquino, who led the restoration of democracy in the Philippines in 1986. Her death in August 2009 led to calls for her only son, an incumbent senator, to run for president.

Owing largely to the "Cory Magic," Aquino emerged victorious over 8 other candidates.

It was the vice-presidential race that was tight. Binay defeated Aquino's running mate, Senator Manuel "Mar" Roxas II, by a slim margin of 720,000 votes.

It's a double whammy for Roxas, the original Liberal Party standard-bearer. He slid down to the vice-presidential race to give way to Aquino's candidacy.

Roxas is mulling an election protest. His lawyers claimed "funny trends" in the results of the May polls, particularly the high number of "null votes" supposedly in the bailiwicks of Roxas. There were 2.6 million null votes, 3 times more than the lead of Binay.

Roxas lawyers moved to defer the canvassing of several provinces with high number of null votes but Congress, sitting as the NBOC, voted to deny it.

In response, the Binay camp said the high number of "null votes" was part of the birth pains of automated elections. They called for a review of the automated election system to make sure this will be addressed in the next elections. But they maintained that there was no proof that the null votes were votes for Roxas.

Zubiri said the small ovals could have been the reason for the big number of null votes. There could be at least 3 reasons for null votes: 1) the voters didn't vote for the position; 2) the voters voted for more than 2 candidates for vice-president; and, 3) they under-shaded or over-shaded the oval that the machine could not recognize them.

Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile said he expects the next elections would be automated again, and it would be smoother than this year.

Earlier, there were fears that canvassing will also be delayed because several congressmen have raised issues against the automated polls. But the NBOC ruled that it was not the proper venue for election protests.

"It was a cooperative work between the Speaker and I. The Speaker and I understood each other, tried as best as possible to be even-handed [and] fair, rendering justice to whoever is entitled to it or needs it. No one was a friend or foe," said Enrile.

"We also allowed everybody to say his piece, whether you are a lawyer or a member of the panel. We allowed you to speak and take reasonable time. The moment we see that what you are saying is not repetitious and it’s not meant to delay, we are very lenient in allowing each and everyone to say their piece and ask anything they want," added House Speaker Prospero Nograles.

Noy-Bi

The Liberal Party tandem of Aquino and Roxas was rocked by issues that a faction of Aquino's relatives junked Roxas to support the candidacy of Binay.

Binay and the Cojuangcos--Aquino's maternal family--have long been political allies. Binay was the first Officer-in-Charge (OIC)-mayor appointed by President Aquino after the 1986 People Power Revolution. He and his family have not left Makati city hall since.

Makati was also the regular venue of anti-President Arroyo protests, some of which were led by the late Mrs. Aquino.

While the family denies it, Aquino-Roxas supporter Fr. Eliseo “Jun” Mercado earlier told abs-cbnNEWS.com/Newsbreak that the camp of former President Corazon Aquino's younger brother, Jose "Peping" Cojuangco Jr., campaigned for Binay.

Mercado is a professor at the Notre Dame University in Cotabato City and founder of the Mindanao Leaders Coalition or Kusug Mindanaw.

"Ang dala ng mga Cojuangco ay Noy-Bi, not Noy-Mar (The Cojuangcos are carrying Noynoy-Binay, not Noynoy-Mar). They all came here [in Mindanao]. Tingting Cojuangco was here with Jun Simon," Mercado said in a previous phone interview.

"Of course, they still have their contacts during the time of Cory," Mercado added.

Margarita “Tingting” Cojuangco is Noynoy’s aunt. She is the wife of Jose “Peping” Cojuangco Jr., the younger brother of Mrs. Aquino, whose alleged deals and influence-peddling during her administration led a columnist to coin the word Kamag-anak Inc. (Relatives Incorporated).

Simon, on the other hand, is a member of Peping’s Council on Philippine Affairs (COPA). He was appointed by President Aquino as OIC Mayor of Quezon City in 1986.

For his part, Binay said he was not surprised that some relatives of Noynoy Aquino campaigned for him. – abs-cbnNEWS.com/ Newsbreak

Source

Final tally: Binay leads Roxas by 700,000 votes
By Maria Althea Teves, abs-cbnNEWS.com/ Newsbreak
Posted at 06/08/2010 3:08 PM | Updated as of 06/08/2010 6:10 PM
ANILA, Philippines (UPDATE) - It's final. Liberal Party (LP) standard-bearer Benigno Aquino III and Puwersa ng Masang Pilipino (PMP) vice-presidential candidate Jejomar Binay will be proclaimed as the country's next president and vice-president, respectively.
Final Congressional Tally

The final tally of the National Board of Canvassers showed Aquino with 15,208,678 votes, winning the presidential race with no surprise. His lead over second placer PMP presidential bet Joseph Estrada was 5,720,841 votes. Estrada garnered 9,487,837 votes.

Binay, Estrada's running mate, on the other hand, won the vice presidency with 14,645,574 votes in the final count. Aquino's running mate, Manuel Roxas II, was in close second place with 13,918,490 votes.

There were talks that Binay won because relatives of Aquino, particularly the Cojuangcos, campaigned for the Noy-Bi (Aquino-Binay) tandem and not the LP tandem, especially in Mindanao. (Read: Peping camp campaigned for Noy-Bi)


The proclamation for president and vice-president has been scheduled on Wednesday. Senate Majority Leader Juan Miguel Zubiri yesterday said that it would be held at 2 pm.

Aquino had 15,072,053 votes in the June 7 tally while Estrada was 5 million votes behind with 9,471,029. Only the province of Lanao del Sur had to be canvassed on the last day.

National canvassing resumed at 2:14 p.m. on Tuesday.

It took Congress 1 hour and 10 minutes to canvass the votes from Lanao del Sur, a province with a reputation for being one of the cheating capitals in Muslim Mindanao. The province recently conducted special elections in 28 precincts.

After all the votes were counted, House Speaker Prospero Nograles said: "That's the last COC."



Aquino an obvious winner
Aquino was the obvious winner even before the Congress, sitting as the NBOC, started canvassing votes for President and Vice President.

Partial tally of the Commission on Elections, before the Lanao del Sur votes were considered, showed that his lead over Estrada was over 5 million votes.

Aquino even won in San Juan, Estrada's home city, with 22,225 votes against the former president who also served as San Juan mayor for over 20 years. Estrada received 21,341 votes in San Juan.

In Cebu, a bailiwick of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, Aquino won with 759,938 votes.

This was achieved despite the fact that some members of the powerful Garcia family shifted their support to Nacionalista Party standard-bearer Manuel Villar. Cebu Governor Gwendolyn Garcia remained with the Lakas-Kampi.

Administration standard-bearer Gilberto Teodoro Jr. finished in second place in Cebu with 344,783 votes while Villar was in third with 200,287 votes.

Cebu is the country's biggest voting province with 2.2 million registered voters. (Read: Lakas-Kampi defections: 'Gloriaquino' or 'Villaroyo'?)

Tight VP race
Last Thursday, the tight race between Binay and Roxas led Congress to decide that canvassing would not be terminated.

The canvassing on June 3 ended with Binay leading with 640,000 votes over Roxas, lower than his earlier canvassing lead of 800,000. (Read: Binay's lead over Roxas -- Congress)


Votes from some of the provinces and cities canvassed in the last days gave Binay a bigger margin. His lead in the provinces of North Cotabato, Batangas, Quezon City, Davao del Sur, Cagayan de Oro, Sultan Kudarat and Davao, Pasay and Makati cities ranged from around 20,000 to more than 100,000 votes.

Roxas led in Southern Leyte, Pampanga, Capiz, Marikina City, Cebu City and Surigao del Sur by thousands of votes.

Last Thursday, Binay's lead was only around 640,000. In June 2, when the NBOC suspended canvassing, the vice-presidential race was still very tight with Binay leading by around 120,00 votes over Roxas.

Poll fraud?
The Roxas camp claimed poll fraud in the vice-presidential contest owing to the higher incidence of null votes for vice-president. Binay's camp, however, countered that Congress is not a venue for investigating null votes. (Read: Roxas claims 'Garci' touched PCOS and Binay camp: Congress not venue for null votes)
Binay's camp initally said that they were looking to win with a 930,000 margin. They claimed that the Makati mayor would win fair and square since he won in 14 of the 17 regions.

They scored the LP camp for trying to condition the minds of the people into thinking that Binay cheated. (Read: Binay camp sees 930K winning margin)
Before the NBOC could canvass the Lanao del Sur votes on Tuesday, June 8, Roxas' lawyer Joey Tenefrancia objected to the opening the COCs from the province, raising a number of observations.

He said Roxas received 10 votes or less in 600 plus precincts, 40% of which are from Lanao del Sur, and zero to one votes in 94 clustered precincts, 64.66% of which were in the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) where Binay received majority of the votes. He also noted that those areas in the ARMM have an unusually high voter turn out of 97%.

On Monday night, Tenefrancia said he was disappointed that Congress did not pay attention to their concerns when he claimed that some precincts showed "statistical impossibilities" that favored Binay.

"Senator Roxas has sought to ensure that the true will of the electorate will be upheld. We have consistently manifested and moved that an accurate and complete count of the votes be conducted," Tenefrancia said before Congress before it suspended session on Tuesday.

The Roxas camp confirmed that they are planning to challenge the results of the vice presidential elections. - abs-cbnNEWS.com/ Newsbreak

Source

"If only for this, you have my high respect"

05/11/2010 | 11:13 AM
4 presidential bets concede defeat, congratulate Noynoy

(Updated 4:54 p.m.) As the picture of a Noynoy Aquino administration becomes clearer, four of his rivals for the presidency on Tuesday threw in the towel as they congratulated him for what seems like his impending victory.

First to admit defeat was Aquino’s colleague in the Senate and fiercest rival to the presidency during the campaign period, Nacionalista Party’s Manny Villar Jr.

"Humaharap ako sa inyo ngayon upang tanggapin ang pasyang ito. Upang igalang ang boses ng sambayanang Pilipino (I now face you all to admit my defeat). I congratulate Senator Noynoy Aquino on his victory. The challenges he and our country faces are enormous and we should all work together," he said, reading a prepared statement during a press conference in Mandaluyong City.

Villar's move earned him admiration from the Commission on Elections (Comelec).

"The commission expresses its deep admiration for Senator Manuel Villar for his act of statesmanship for conceding the elections," said Comelec chairman Jose Melo at a press briefing Tuesday afternoon.

Sen. Richard Gordon of Bagumbayan, Ang Kapatiran’s JC de los Reyes, and Lakas-Kampi-CMD's Gilberto Teodoro Jr. followed Villar's steps. In a statement posted on his Facebook account, Gordon congratulated Aquino for his "spectacular victory" and called upon the nation to unite and support the new administration.

"We accept the will of the people. Today, we have a victory for democracy with the successful exercise of our first nationwide automated election despite naysayers and doubters," said Gordon.

In a text message to reporters, De los Reyes said that although Aquino’s platforms differ from his, he would still "support his government in other reform efforts we have in common."

Teodoro, who is Aquino's cousin, said he is happy with the results of the elections.

According to GMA Network's partial and unofficial tally as of 4:50 p.m. on Tuesday, Aquino remained at the top spot with 13,036,271 votes. Villar ranked third with 4,680,580; Teodoro at 4th with 3,470,136; Gordon at sixth place with 446,203; and De los Reyes at ninth with 37,726.

Thank you’s

Villar thanked his party mates at the Nacionalista Party and supporters who supported his presidential bid, and said he would continue working for the welfare of the poor.

"Bagama’t ako ay hindi pinalad, ang aking pangarap na tapusin ang kahirapan ay hindi pa nagwawakas. Ito ay aking ipagpapatuloy bagama’t sa ibang paraan (Although I didn’t win, my efforts to end poverty in this country will continue)," he said in a sober tone.

Villar, a self-made billionaire, also thanked his supporters and volunteers who helped him through the campaign. He, however, expressed sadness about the allegations and negative propaganda that have hounded him throughout his campaign.

"Ako ay naniniwala na sa darating na mga araw ako ay mabibigyan ng pagkakataon na linisin ang aking pangalan upang maliwanagan ang ating mga kababayan. Yan ay mahalaga sa akin higit sa anupamang bagay," he said.

(I believe that soon I’ll be given a chance to clear my name before the public. That’s the most important thing to me.)

Villar smiled but declined to take questions from the reporters, leaving the Nacionalista Party headquarters immediately after the press briefing.

Life after campaign

Teodoro, a former lawmaker and Defense secretary, said he has no plans of staying in politics, adding that he would rather return to being a family man. “Malaki ang utang ko sa kanila (I now owed a lot to my family). I will go back to being a good husband, a good father," he said.

“I have served my country the best I could. I don't think anyone can ask more of me," he added. He also dismissed calls for him to run for senator in the 2013 midterm elections.

Teodoro thanked his supporters whom he said did not support him but his idea of national unity and positivism. He said he is not blaming anybody for his defeat.

Gordon likewise thanked his supporters, especially his volunteers particularly "those who gave up their limited resources as a manifestation of trust in his brand of leadership and track record."

"I ran a very truthful, straightforward and candid campaign and thought we could run on the basis of our platform, track record and volunteerism," he said. — with Carmela Lapeña, Aie B. See, and Kim Tan/LBG/RSJ/KBK, GMANews.TV

05/11/2010 | 04:26 PM
Gibo admits defeat to cousin Noynoy
CARMELA LAPEÑA, GMANews.TV

Administration bet Gilberto “Gibo" Teodoro Jr. on Tuesday afternoon joined the ranks of presidential aspirants who conceded defeat to his cousin, Liberal Party’s Sen. Benigno “Noynoy" Aquino III.

“Bagama’t hindi pa official, mukhang si Senator Aquino na (Although it’s not yet official, I think Senator Aquino is already the winner in the elections)," Teodoro said during a press briefing at the Lakas-Kampi-CMD headquarters in Greenhills, San Juan.

“I am so far happy with the results [of the elections]," he added.

Partial elections results showed Teodoro at fourth place behind Aquino, former President Joseph Estrada (Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino) and Sen. Manny Villar Jr. (Nacionalista Party).

As of 4:15 p.m., the GMANews.TV partial and unofficial tally on presidential aspirants showed Teodoro with 3,470,136 votes compared to Aquino’s 13,036,271; Estrada’s 8,345,826; and Villar’s 4,680,580.

Before Teodoro, Villar, Richard Gordon (Bagumbayan) and JC de los Reyes (Ang Kapatiran) had also admitted their defeat to Aquino, son of the late President Corazon Aquino and slain Sen. Benigno “Ninoy" Aquino Jr.

Teodoro, a former lawmaker and Defense secretary, said he has no plans of staying in politics, adding that he would rather return to being a family man. “Malaki ang utang ko sa kanila (I now owed a lot to my family). I will go back to being a good husband, a good father," he said.

“I have served my country the best I could. I don't think anyone can ask more of me," he added. He also dismissed calls for him to run for senator in the 2013 midterm elections.

Teodoro thanked his supporters whom he said did not support him but his idea of national unity and positivism. He said he is not blaming anybody for his defeat.

“I did not fight for a political position for myself but for an idea. What can we do right for the country? Winning or losing is secondary. We fight for an idea—an idea of competence. Basic education reform, college graduate opportunities for every family, food security, genuine sustainable agrarian reform, localized peace processes, strong foreign relations, and several others," he said.

He also thanked the media which he said was mostly supportive of him. “Those in front of me, you have been fair. But those not here, I’ll have to reserve my judgment."

Teodoro said he has not spoken with President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo about his plans after the elections. —KBK, GMANews.TV

05/11/2010 | 03:44 PM
Gordon concedes to Noynoy

Bagumbayan standard-bearer Richard "Dick" Gordon on Tuesday became the third presidential aspirant to concede defeat to Liberal Party’s Benigno “Noynoy" Aquino III.

In a statement posted on his official Facebook page, Gordon congratulated Aquino on his “spectacular victory" and called upon the nation to unite and support the new administration.

“We accept the will of the people," said Gordon who, as of 3:40 p.m., ranked 6th (446,203 votes) among nine presidential aspirants in GMANews.TV’s partial and unofficial tally.

“I ran a very truthful, straightforward and candid campaign and thought we could run on the basis of our platform, track record and volunteerism," he added in admitting his defeat.

He also said he would like to congratulate all the winners and pray that they serve the country well.

Gordon thanked his supporters, especially his volunteers and “those who gave up their limited resources as a manifestation of trust in his brand of leadership and track record."

Above all, Gordon expressed exhilaration that the country’s first nationwide automated elections on Monday went well despite glitches in the machines used.

“Today, we have a victory for democracy with the successful exercise of our first nationwide automated election despite naysayers and doubters," he said. —Carmela Lapeña/KBK, GMANews.TV

05/11/2010 | 01:08 PM
Ang Kapatiran's JC de los Reyes concedes to Noynoy

Ang Kapatiran Party Presidential candidate John Carlos de los Reyes has conceded to Sen. Benigno"Noynoy" Aquino III of the Liberal Party, a day after the historic nationwide automation was held.

"I conceded as to the electoral count but not as to the platforms I was tasked to push," de los Reyes said in a text message sent to his party's media officer.

"Sen. Aquino is not one with us in these radical reform we need for our country, but I will support his government in other reform efforts we have in common," the text added.

De los Reyes is the youngest among the nine presidential contenders.

His party, which promotes the social teachings of the church, has been supported by several bishops all over the country.

De los Reyes lagged behind pre-election surveys conducted by pollsters Pulse Asia and Social Weather Stations. - RJAB Jr., GMANews.TV

Erap overtakes Villar, Binay edges Loren: poll
abs-cbnNEWS.com
Posted at 05/03/2010 10:34 AM | Updated as of 05/03/2010 10:38 AM

MANILA, Philippines – Former President Joseph “Erap” Estrada has overtaken Sen. Manuel “Manny” Villar, Jr. to take second place in the presidential race, according to the latest Manila Standard Today (MST) pre-election survey.

The survey, which interviewed 2,500 registered voters nationwide from April 25-27, showed Liberal Party standard-bearer Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III in the lead with 38%, which is 16 percentage points above Estrada's rating of 22%. Villar was in 3rd place with 20%.

According to MST resident pollster Pedro Laylo, the negative attacks on Villar have taken a toll on his survey performance.

Other presidential bets, meantime, got single digit results: Gilbert “Gibo” Teodoro, Jr. (9%), Bro. Eddie Villanueva (3%) and Sen. Richard “Dick” Gordon (2%).

The survey had a margin of error of plus-minus 2%.

The new survey came less than a week after private pollster Pulse Asia released the results of its own pre-election survey. In the April 23-25 survey, Aquino gained 2 percentage points with 39% support, compared to 20% support for both Estrada and Villar.

Meanwhile, in the vice-presidential survey, Laylo said Makati Mayor Jejomar “Jojo” Binay has pulled away from Sen. Loren Legarda and is reportedly setting his sights on frontrunner Sen. Manuel “Mar” Roxas II.

Roxas still led the pack with 38% while Binay is at 28%. Legarda slipped to 3rd place with 20% followed by Edu Manzano (3%) and Bayani Fernando (2%). All the other candidates had ratings of 1% or lower.

The survey said 6% of voters were undecided about their choice for president while 7% were undecided on their vice-presidential bet.

Binay earlier surged past Legarda in the April 23-25 Pulse Asia survey. – With a report from Ces Drilon, ABS-CBN News

Lucky streak keeps Noynoy on top
By Carmela Fonbuena, abs-cbnNews.com/ Newsbreak
Posted at 05/01/2010 5:46 PM | Updated as of 05/01/2010 7:54 PM

MANILA, Philippines—The rise of Senator Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino III from a low-key politician—who almost lost the 2007 senatorial elections—to what surveys say is the most popular presidential candidate is a result of pure luck.

The story, of course, begins with the death of his mother, former President Corazon Aquino, in August 2009. Seeing the outpouring of public sympathy toward Mrs. Aquino, her allies started egging Noynoy to run for president as early as her funeral.

Since Noynoy decided to run, he has never left the top spot in the surveys by 2 major polling firms—the Social Weather Stations (SWS) and Pulse Asia, which, until just before he joined the race, was owned by his relatives.

Noynoy got his highest rating at 44 points in the October 2009 Pulse Asia survey. His Liberal Party (LP) acknowledged it was “Cory Magic” at work.

He never recovered his 44% at the height of the euphoria, but he enjoys a big 19-point lead over his closest rivals in the latest survey. In Pulse Asia’s latest survey, conducted 2 weeks before May 10, Noynoy registered 39 points.

Senator Manuel Villar Jr. of the Nationalista Party (NP) and former President Joseph Estrada of the Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino (PMP) tied for 2nd place with 20 points.

“We are confident. Senator Aquino’s numbers seem to have solidified,” said LP campaign manager Florencio Abad.

“Cory Magic has never left Noynoy…. He’s a lucky guy. He’s also lucky because other parties are having problems—because of their own makings. May mga kapalpakan sila,” added De La Salle University political analyst Allen Surla.

February: Noynoy share’s Erap’s luck

It was not always an easy ride for Noynoy. In late January, Villar got close to his numbers. His 37 points was statistically tied with Villar’s 35 points.

For the LP, it was the worst time for Villar to catch up. The survey results were released shortly before the official start of the campaign period on February 10.

Villar was gaining momentum because of effective political advertising. “The ad ratio was something like 10 to 1. It was because of the sheer volume of his ads. He was heard. We were not being heard,” said Abad.

At the same time, some groups supporting Noynoy were arguing against using political advertising as a campaign tool. “Some people [wanted it to be] an alternative campaign and we should not do ads,” Abad recalled.

Abad said the debate was settled when the following SWS survey came out, showing Aquino and Villar still in statistical tie.

Meanwhile, the LP also attacked Villar on various issues such as his heavy spending on political advertising, his alleged coalition with President Arroyo and, most aggressively, the C-5 road controversy.

When Noynoy regained his lead in the following survey (Feb. 21-25), the LP ascribed it to the C-5 controversy. But they were wrong.

Analysis of the survey numbers show that it Estrada was eating a big chunk of Villar’s support base in Mindanao. (See "Erap, not C-5 caused Villar's survey drop")

Noynoy's numbers then were steady at 36%, but But Villar suffered a 6-point drop.

Estrada pulled a surprise when he gained 6 points, from 12 points in January to 18 points in February.

It was a result of the January decision of the Commission on Elections junking the disqualification cases against Estrada. It erased the doubts on voters' mind that their votes would go to waste if they would choose Estrada.

Cagayan de Oro Rep. Rufus Rodriguez said, who is PMP’s vice president for Mindanao, said the January survey didn’t capture this because Estrada’s political advertisements informing voters of the legal victory came out only in February.

Indirectly, Noynoy was a beneficiary of Estrada’s advantage.

It seems that Estrada continues to shrink Villar’s base in Mindanao. In the April 23-25 survey, Villar lost 7 more points in the region. Estrada gained 5 points, although it was equal to the error margin.

"We're not really surprised that President Estrada's ratings rose. We stuck to our strategy of going directly to the people, and they have realized that Estrada is the real leader of the poor,” said PMP spokesperson Ralph Calinisan.

March: Lakas defections, ‘not poor’ claims

It had been downhill for Villar since. In the Pulse Asia survey conducted March 21-28, he lost 4 more percentage points. It’s a total of 10 points decrease since he was statistically tied with Noynoy.

Noynoy, on the other hand, continues to benefit from the failures of his rivals to address issues against them.

A part of Noynoy’s luck, if it may be called that, is his poor track record. Unlike Villar—who has been a businessman, a House Speaker, and a Senate President—Noynoy has never held a major leadership position that would test his character.

Noynoy's record is clean because it’s blank. In his 12 years in Congress, he is yet to pass a single one of his major bills. In his 9 years as Tarlac congressman, in fact, the only law he passed was the one declaring as special holiday the foundation day of Tarlac City.

There was hardly any issue to hit Noynoy except his family’s failure to distribute to farmer-beneficiaries Hacienda Luisita, a 6,000-plus hectare estate that the Cojuangcos were supposed to have returned to government more than 4 decades ago. But it did not seem to resonate with the voters.

“It did not. We did a lot of focus group discussions (FGD) on it. It’s because they overloaded the issue. They entirely put the blame on Noynoy. They even accused him with the massacre,” said Abad.

Even years before the NP supporters brought up the issue of the 12 farmers and 2 children who were killed at the picket lines outside Hacienda Luisita, however, various reports had quoted farmer groups and witnesses saying that those who shot at the farmers were came from inside the hacienda and were known bodyguards of Noynoy.

Recently, NP camp tried to cast doubt on Noynoy’s ability to govern by circulating spurious psychological reports. They were immediately denied by the people supposedly involved in the evaluation.

What appears to be Villar’s strategy in the final days of the campaign period is to hit Noynoy’s poor track record and incompetence—directly in interviews and indirectly in ads.

With a number of issues hounding Villar, it is difficult to pin down what particular issue hurt Villar’s campaign.

Pulse Asia president Ronald Holmes said the “Villaroyo” tag may have hurt Villar in the March survey.

During the survey period, one of the biggest headlines was the defection of some of President Arroyo’s allies to the NP camp. It boosted LP’s allegation of the supposed coalition between President Arroyo and Villar.

Later in March, the resignation of administration bet former Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. resigned as chairman of the ruling party Lakas-Kabalikat ng Malayang Pilipino Christian Muslim Democrats (Lakas-Kampi CMD).

This happened after the survey was conducted, however.

Although Teodoro later denied it, news reports then exposed that his move was sparked by the call made by First Gentleman Jose Miguel Arroyo to Cebu Rep. Pablo Garcia Sr. to ask him to shift support to Villar. Cebu is the country’s biggest voting population with 2.2 million voters.

Other camps have also been attacking Villar’s character throughout the campaign period.

In March, newspaper columnists Solita Monsod of Phililppine Daily Inquirer, Lito Banayo of Malaya, and William Esposo of Philippine Star debunked Villar’s claim that he was poor, the foundation of his entire campaign.

(The 3 columnists had worked with the Cojuangcos before. Monsod was economic planning secretary during President Aquino's time, when her husband was chief elections commissioner. Banayo was involved in the Aquino-Laurel snap elections campaign in 1986, and was postal official during the Aquino administration. Esposo is with Noynoy's uncle, Peping Cojuangco, in the political group Council on Philippine Affairs.)

Surla said the claim that Villar didn't have dirt-poor beginnings had an impact on his campaign. “The problem is he over-dramatized his poverty. That did it for him,” he said.

To belie the allegations, Villar’s mother recently held a press conference to defend his son. She also appeared in advertisements. These developments have not been capture in the surveys.

April: Villar’s plunge

Noynoy’s numbers hardly moved. But Villar, who was hit by one controversy after another, continues to go down.

The April 23-25 surveys shows Villar is down with 20 points. He is now tied with Estrada for 2nd place.

Villar’s camp said the surveys numbers are a result of a concentrated black propaganda.

“In the past few weeks, we have seen intensified black propaganda and vicious attacks from both the Erap and Aquino camps,” said NP spokesman and senatorial candidate Gilbert Remulla said.

“Jamby, si Erap, si Gordon, and the Liberal Party, they’re all hitting Manny [Villar] at the same time. There has been a flurry of negative campaigning. It’s below the belt,” said another NP spokesman, Adel Tamano.

Among the key developments identified by Pulse Asia during the survey period are the following:

* Defections from Lakas-Kampi CMD to NP and LP
* Allegations made by Estrada and Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile that while serving Senate President in 2007, Villar used his position to pressure the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) to decide in his favor on a matter concerning the public offering of his real estate company’s shares.

Surla said the possibility of the numbers changing in the “last two minutes” of the campaign cannot be discounted, although the other camps will have to work double time.

“Based on statistics, the chances are getting slimmer for Villar. But statistics is just one dimension,” he said.

Surla said there are other factors that could affect the result of elections—local machinery, resources, and voter turnout among others.

Abad said they will not be complacent. “In Philippine politics, until you are proclaimed, you are never sure. A big question mark is the automated elections. You cannot be complacent,” he said. (abs-cbnNews.com/Newsbreak)

Noynoy, Mar keep survey lead
By Aurea Calica (The Philippine Star) Updated April 23, 2010 12:00 AM

MANILA, Philippines - Liberal Party (LP) presidential candidate Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III and his running mate Sen. Manuel Roxas II have maintained their leads in various surveys three weeks before the elections.

The Manila Broadcasting Co.-dzRH survey on April 16 with 6,900 respondents showed Aquino leading the race with 38.6 percent, followed by Nacionalista Party standard-bearer Sen. Manuel Villar Jr. with 22.8 percent. Former President Joseph Estrada of the Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino got 21.2 percent; former Defense secretary Gilberto Teodoro of the Lakas-Kampi-CMD, 11.3 percent; Eddie Villanueva of Bangon Pilipinas, 2.7 percent; Sen. Richard Gordon of Bagumbayan, 1.6 percent.

Vetellano Acosta, who had been disqualified, got 0.3 percent, while environmentalist Nicanor Perlas and Sen. Jamby Madrigal each got 0.2 percent. Olongapo City Councilor JC de los Reyes scored 0.1 percent.

In the vice presidential race, Roxas registered a 41.4 percent rating while Makati City Mayor Jejomar Binay got 27.3 percent and Sen. Loren Legarda, 22.9 percent.

Former Metro Manila Development Authority chairman Bayani Fernando got 2.9 percent; former Securities and Exchange Commission chairman Perfecto Yasay, 0.9 percent; news anchor Jay Sonza, 0.4 percent and Dominador Chipeco, 0.1 percent.

Aquino and Roxas also topped surveys by local governments.

In Iloilo City, a survey conducted from April 17 to 18 with 600 respondents showed Aquino garnering 45.5 percent, followed by Villar with 29.5 percent; Teodoro, 9.5 percent; Estrada, 7.8 percent; Perlas and Villanueva, one percent each; and Gordon, 0.5 percent.

Roxas got 71.2 percent; Binay, 11.5 percent; Legarda 10.7 percent; actor Edu Manzano, 1.2 percent; Fernando, one percent; and Yasay, one percent.

In Legazpi City, a survey dated March 26-29 showed Aquino was favored by 54.3 percent of respondents; Villar, 23 percent; Estrada, 6.2 percent; Teodoro, 5.4 percent; Gordon, 1.3 percent; Villanueva, 0.7 percent; De los Reyes, 0.3 percent. Madrigal got zero.

Roxas received 54.9 percent; Binay, 18 percent; Legarda 17.2 percent; Fernando, 1.5 percent; Manzano, 0.8 percent; Yasay, 0.3 percent; and Sonza, 0.1 percent.

In Davao, an April 20 survey among 6,000 respondents also showed Aquino leading with 46.18 percent; Estrada, 31.07 percent; Villar, 12.40 percent; and Teodoro, 5.57 percent.

Roxas got 50.11 percent; Binay 28.29 percent; Legarda 15.59 percent; and Manzano, 1.42 percent.

LP campaign manager Florencio Abad said they were furnished the survey results by various groups and local officials who commissioned them.

Aquino and Roxas, in a statement, vowed to rev up their campaign and not be distracted by black propaganda.

Roxas, also LP president, said the party was banking on an outpouring of support from various sectors and defectors from other camps as a result of their positive campaigning.

Earlier, Albay Gov. Joey Salceda bolted the administration party to support Aquino and Roxas.

Several national unions affiliated with the Lakas Manggagawa Labor Center have formed an umbrella group called Workers for Aquino and Roxas.

The group comprises the Philippine Association of Free Labor Unions, Alliance of Filipino Workers, Union of Filipino Workers, Construction Workers Solidarity, Workers Welfare Watch-Philippines, Ladies Garments Textile Workers Welfare Association and the National Labor Union.

Meanwhile, a Filipino seaman was the first to vote personally on Wednesday in the overseas absentee voting (OAV) at the Philippine consulate in Los Angeles.

The consulate said Ulysses Tumamak Toling became the first registered seafarer to cast his vote at the Consulate General.

Meanwhile, the Philippine embassy in Tel Aviv said overseas absentee voters continue to flock to the embassy to cast their votes. The Overseas Absentee Voting officially opened last April 10. With Pia Lee-Brago

Source

Noynoy still leads in survey commissioned by Villar ally


Presidential candidate Sen. Benigno “Noynoy" Aquino III (Liberal Party) remains on top in a recent survey commissioned by an ally of rival Sen. Manny Villar Jr. (Nacionalista Party) .

According to the results of the survey conducted from March 28 to 30 and purportedly commissioned by House Minority Floor Leader Ronaldo Zamora, Villar scored 29 percentage points, or eight points behind Aquino’s 37.

The NP claimed the survey was from Social Weather Station (SWS), although the poll firm has yet to confirm it. Calls made by GMANews.TV to its office were not answered.

In the SWS survey last month that was commissioned by BusinessWorld, Villar got 28 percent while Aquino got 37 percent.

In a statement, the NP still expressed exultation over the latest survey, saying it was a “leap" from the 12-point lead enjoyed by Aquino in the March 21 to 28 survey by rival pollster Pulse Asia, where the LP bet got 37 percent compared to Villar’s 25.

“That’s a leap of four points [25 percent in Pulse Asia to 29 percent in SWS], immediately after the field personnel of the other survey firm were just wrapping up their own results," said NP senatorial candidate and spokesperson Gilbert Remulla in a statement.

“Misleading the public"

The LP, meanwhile, castigated NP for allegedly trying to mislead the public by hyping on the supposed cut in Aquino's lead.

In a text message, LP spokesman and Quezon Rep. Erin Tañada said if the Zamora-commissioned survey is true, then it showed that Villar gained only a point – from 28 percent to 29 percent – compared to the SWS poll that preceded it.

“You do not compare survey results from different survey companies," he pointed out, adding that the four-point cut in Aquino’s lead that the LP stated in its statement was actually based on the results of SWS and Pulse Asia surveys.

“Again the NP is trying to mislead the public," Tañada said. “Obviously the NP is desperately trying to look for ways to cover up the fact that the lead of Senator Aquino seems to be stable if you compared the commissioned and the non-commissioned surveys of the SWS."

He added that the one-point gain by Villar in the two SWS surveys “is within the margin of error and is negligible."

The LP has accused Villar of being the “secret candidate" of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo.

Other presidential bets

The Zamora-commissioned poll also showed former president Joseph Estrada (Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino) falling to 17 percent from previous 19 percent, and administration bet Gilberto Teodoro (Lakas-Kampi-CMD) picking up two points to score eight percent.

The statement did not indicate the preference ratings for other presidential aspirants Sen. Richard Gordon (Bagumbayan), evangelist Eddie Villanueva (Bangon Pilipinas), Sen. Jamby Madrigal (independent), environmentalist Nicanor Perlas (independent), and Olongapo City councilor John Carlos delos Reyes (Ang Kapatiran). - KBK, GMANews.TV

Source

Villar falls 4 points; Aquino, Erap, Gibo steady: Pulse Asia

ABS CBN News

MANILA, Philippines (1st UPDATE) - Sen. Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino III leads in the latest Pulse Asia survey with a 12 percentage-point advantage over closest rival, Sen. Manuel “Manny” Villar, Jr.

In the Pulse Asia survey conducted from March 21 to 28, Aquino got 37% support followed by Villar with 25%, former President Joseph Estrada with 18%, administration bet Gilbert Teodoro with 7%, Sen. Richard Gordon with 2%, Bro. Eddie Villanueva with 3%.

Nicanor Perlas, John Carlos "JC" de los Reyes, and Jamby Madrigal were chosen by less than 1% of respondents.

Aquino was statistically the same as in the February 21-25 survey while Villar dropped by 4 percentage points. He widened his lead over Villar from 7 points in February to 12 points in March 21 to 28.

Estrada was steady at 18%, and Teodoro also failed to get more support with 7%, the same level as in February.

All the other candidates did not improve their survey ratings.

'Noynoy sustains lead'

"Senator Benigno 'Noynoy' C. Aquino III sustains his lead in the presidential race," Pulse Asia said in its April 6 media release from Prof. Ronald Holmes, president of the polling firm.

"Senator Aquino enjoys a slight significant lead over the second running contender in almost all areas and socio-economic classes ranging from a low of 7 percent in the Balance Luzon (where Sen. Aquino's preference is at 33% versus Sen. Villar's 26%) to a high 32% for the upper socio-economic class ABC (where Sen. Aquino's voting support is at 49% against 17% for Sen. Villar)," Pulse Asia said.

"In Mindanao and the lowest socio-economic class E, Sen. Aquino's preferences (37% and 34%) are statistically close to the preferences of former President Estrada (in Mindanao at 29%) and Senator Villar (for Class E at 28%)," the survey firm added.

Mar keeps lead, Binay gaining over Loren

In the vice-presidential race, Sen. Manuel "Mar" Roxas II kept a comfortable 20 percentage-point lead over closest rival, Sen. Loren Legarda. He had 43% support while Legarda got 23%.

Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay continued to improve in the surveys, gaining 4 percentage points from 15% in February to 19% in March 21 to 28.

Legarda fell by 4 percentage points, from 27% in February to 23% in March 21 to 28.

The rest of the candidates--Bayani Fernando (3%), Edu Manzano (2%), Perfecto Yasay (1%), Jay Sonza (0.5%), Dominador Chipeco (0.1%)--did not improve their survey ratings.

The latest survey was done with 3,000 adult respondents with a margin of error of plus/minus 2%. A sample ballot "that is a facsimile of the COMELEC official ballot" was used for the survey.

Source

Aquino opens up lead versus Villar--SWS

MANILA, Philippines (1st UPDATE) - Liberal Party presidential candidate Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino has arrested a slide in support while his nearest rival, Manual "Manny" Villar of the Nacionalista Party, lost ground ahead of elections on May 10, an opinion poll showed on Monday.

The Businessworld-Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey, conducted on March 19-22 before the start of campaigning for Congress and local positions last Friday, also showed administration candidate Gilberto "Gibo" Tedoro remained a distant fourth in polling.

Support for opposition senator Aquino, son of the country's democracy icon, Corazon "Cory" Aquino, stood at 37 percent, basically steady with his February reading of 36 percent although well below a support level of 60 percent last September.

Billionaire senator Villar dropped six points to 28 percent, and former president Joseph Estrada, forced out of office in 2001, saw his support rise four points to 19 percent.

Support for Teodoro, a former defence secretary in outgoing President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo's administration, was unchanged at 6 percent, the SWS poll showed.

Major campaign issues are corruption, poverty and managing the economy and a large budget deficit.

Aquino portrays himself as a "change" candidate, promising to fight corruption, reform development spending and improve transparency, and has said he would investigate allegations of corruption against Arroyo.

His Liberal Party lacks the national scale of the ruling Lakas-Kampi coalition, whose grassroots organisation could boost Teodoro's ratings now that local campaigning has started.

However, if Teodoro is unable to lift his ratings soon, analysts believe Arroyo's supporters could swing behind Villar.

The SWS results are very similar to support levels in a late February poll by Pulse Asia, another independent pollster.

The opinion poll results were posted on the SWS website http://www.sws.org.ph/

The survey of 2,100 people has a 2 percent margin of error.

Voter fatigue to Villar ads?

Edwin Lacierda, spokesman of the Aquino campaign, attributed the rise in Aquino's survey ratings to voter-fatigue to Villar's ads and the success of Aquino's campaign message against corruption.

"It's really because of all these things that have come out - the fatigue on the commercials, overspending, the C-5 report, Villaroyo alliance - as well as our own message of 'kung walang corrupt, walang mahirap,'" he said in an ANC interview.

Lacierda said Villar tried but failed to overtake Aquino's lead despite spending close to a billion pesos in ads before the start of the official campaign period in February. He said the closest that Villar ever got to toppling Aquino's lead was when they reached a statistical tie in the February 24-28, 2010 SWS survey. (Read Aquino's lead falling steadily: SWS chief) http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/03/09/10/aquinos-lead-steadily-falling...

He said the latest March 19-22 poll put Aquino ahead of the pack in terms of both geographic area and socio-economic class, although he saw his support drop in Metro Manila (39% from 42%) and Mindanao (32% from 35%). He overtook Mr. Villar in the Balance of Luzon (35% versus 30%), and among the class ABC (45% vs. 17%) and class E (33% vs. 31%).

Support for Villar erodes

Mr. Villar saw his support eroded in almost all geographic areas and socioeconomic classes, except in Metro Manila where he kept his score of 20%, keeping him third behind Joseph Estrada. Mr. Aquino’s nationwide gain was limited to one point as his 3-point losses in Metro Manila and Mindanao offset increases of 4 points in the Visayas and 2 points in the Balance of Luzon.

"We really studied per region and per class. We realized where our weak areas were so we mapped out a strategy in reinforcing those weak areas. I think the people's response has been very positive. They have responded to our message of good governance, the character and the integrity of Sen. Aquino, and the dividends of good governance," Lacierda said.

He said Aquino's sister, Kris, was also instrumental in bringing in crowds during LP campaign sorties in Northern Luzon.

"The presence of Kris was also a big gain in areas where we are weak. It shows her drawing power. At the same time, it shows we are not done yet with our campaign. We have not yet mobilized our entire resources for the rest of the campaign, and we will do so as the election draws nearer," he said.

Gibo still 4th

The March 19-22 poll showed administration candidate Gilberto “Gibo” C. Teodoro, Jr. of the Lakas-Kampi-CMD remaining in single digit territory with his score staying at 6%.

There were minimal changes with respect to the rest of the presidential bets: Bagumbayan’s Sen. Richard “Dick” J. Gordon picked up a point to score a fifth-placed 3%, overtaking Bangon Pilipinas’ Eduardo “Bro. Eddie” C. Villanueva who lost a point to 2%. Following were Ang Kapatiran bet John Carlos “JC” G. De Los Reyes with 0.3%, and independent candidates Jesus Nicanor “Nick” P. Perlas (0.1%) and Sen. Ana Consuelo “Jamby” A. S. Madrigal (0.04%).

Votes for disqualified Kilusang Bagong Lipunan candidate Vetellano “Dodong” S. Acosta were classed under the undecided and others.

As with the previous Feb. 24-28 survey, the SWS respondents were asked to privately fill out a ballot containing the names of the official candidates in alphabetical order.

A total of 2,100 registered voters were polled nationwide, divided into random samples of 300 in Metro Manila and 600 each in the Balance of Luzon, the Visayas, and Mindanao. The sampling error margins used were ±2.2% for national percentages, ±6% for Metro Manila, and ±4% for the rest of Luzon, the Visayas, and Mindanao.

Palace: Wait for impact of local campaign

Asked about his reaction to the survey, Teodoro said: "Wala na akong magagawa don. I've stopped relying on surveys."

Meanwhile, the Palace downplayed the continued dismal survey performance of Teodoro.

"The (latest) survey started before the start of the (local) campaign. Di pa kasama diyan yung umpisa ng local campaign. Syempre up and down, see-saw ang ganung positions. Mararamdaman na po ang strength. This isn’t something that bothers the administration party. Hindi pa reflective sa kampaniya yun. The administration party pa rin, their belief is they have best candidate out eh," said Deputy Presidential spokesperson Gary Olivar.

Olivar also downplayed the defection of former Ilocos Sur governor Luis "Chavit" Singson to the camp of Villar. He said Singson defected to Villar's camp in response to the call of local leaders.

He also dismissed rumors that Singson's defection is proof that President Arroyo has forged an alliance with the Nacionalista bet.

Aquino also leads MST poll

Meanwhile, the LP said Aquino is also leading in the results of the Manila Standard Today (MST) pre-election survey, scoring 39% over Villar's 26%. Estrada and Teodoro, meanwhile, garnered 17% and 6%, respectively.
The Standard survey indicated a surge in Aquino’s popularity over the regions and the classes, noting that “[a]mong the very poor Aquino held a 12 point lead over Villar, or 39 percent to 27 percent.”

According to Pedro Laylo, the Standard’s resident pollster, “[s]upport for Villar is in the downtrend in urban areas specifically in the National Capital Region where he lost seven points while Aquino added eight more points.”

Meanwhile in the vice-presidential race, Aquino’s running mate, Sen. Manuel “Mar” Roxas, also enjoys a commanding lead in both the SWS and the Standard surveys, scoring at 42% and 39%, respectively. His closest rival, the NP’s Loren Legarda, came in at 25% in the SWS survey, and at 29% in this month’s Standard survey.

LP General Campaign Manager Florencio “Butch” Abad attributed Aquino’s surge to the strategic focus provided by former Senator Serge Osmeña, who has recently taken a leave of absence to focus on his own senatorial campaign, and to the tireless assistance of Aquino’s hundreds of thousands of dedicated volunteers.

Aquino has been campaigning on a platform of good governance and freedom from the culture of corruption that is a major cause of poverty in the country.

Abad sees Aquino’s constant lead in the pre-election polls as indication that “the Filipino people continue to believe in Aquino’s ability to bring about a clean and compassionate government that will put an end to corruption and alleviate poverty.” -- with Reuters, BusinessWorld, ANC
as of 03/29/2010 6:05 PM

Montano 'dedicates' election campaign to dead son

abs-cbnNEWS.com | 03/27/2010 8:31 PM

MANILA, Philippines -- Actor Cesar Montano is reportedly inclined to continue campaigning for a gubernatorial seat in Bohol province in honor of his dead son who committed suicide last Friday.

According to director Marilou Diaz-Abaya, a close friend of Montano, the actor will carry on with his campaign as a tribute to his 23-year-old son Christian Angelo, who committed suicide on March 26.

“He's inclined to pursue his candidacy as homage to Angelo and the youth,” said Diaz-Abaya.

She said Montano is still heartbroken over his son’s suicide, which was allegedly spurned by "love problems."

The actor has requested the public to respect their privacy and refused to talk more about his son's death.

Diaz-Abaya said Christian Angelo was very close to his father. Christian was Montano's son by a first wife who passed away some years ago.

The young Montano was said to have shot himself in the head with a .45 pistol inside their home along Yakal Street, Tivoli Royale subdivision in Barangay Batasan Hills, Quezon City at around 6 a.m.

Radio DZMM reported that Christian Angelo was talking to someone over the phone before he ended his life.

The remains of Montano’s son will be cremated on Sunday morning.

Montano said in a media statement that he was in Bohol with his current wife, actress Sunshine Dizon, and their daughter Angela when he heard the news of his son's death. The actor immediately flew back to Manila.

"I was just with him yesterday before leaving for Bohol. Little did I know that it would be the last time I was to see him alive," Montano said.

"No words can describe the grief that my family and I are experiencing with this devastating news. He was young, a cheerful, thoughtful and loving son who ha[d] a generous heart and spirit." Report by Jing Castañeda, ABS-CBN News.

Villar seen to capitalize on Pacquiao victory

MANILA, Philippines - After successfully defending his World Boxing Organization welterweight belt, boxer Manny Pacquiao is expected to come home to an even tougher fight in the political ring as candidate for congressman and endorser of Nacionalista Party standard-bearer Manny Villar.

Villar said Pacquiao's endorsement could add the much needed boost to his campaign that would propel him to the top of the presidential surveys ahead of the May 10 elections.

“Sure it will help,” Villar told reporters when asked how Pacquiao’s victory Sunday over Joshua Clottey would help his (Villar's) chances of winning the election.

Villar said Pacquiao’s victory shows the importance of perseverance in any fight. He said he identified with the boxer and TV host Willie Revillame who both rose from poverty because of perseverance and hard work.

"We all had nothing in the past. Now that we have accomplished something, we just want to give back to the poor. One who forgets his past will not reach his destination," he said in a statement.

Pacquiao, a former stalwart of President Arroyo's Lakas-Kampi-CMD party, jumped ship to join Villar's NP ticket for Congress in the lone district of Sarangani.

A Malacañang official, meanwhile, said Pacquiao's victory should be seen as the triumph of all Filipinos and not just one political party.

In a statement, deputy presidential spokesman Gary Olivar downplayed the Filipino boxer's decision to be identified with the opposition. "We trust that Manny will continue to maintain himself above all else as a symbol of national unity and national pride," he said.

Olivar said any form of hero's welcome to the Pambansang Kamao should not be seen as a form of electioneering by the Commission on Elections (Comelec).

He said Malacañang will discuss this week what type of award it will bestow on Pacquiao when he returns next week.

Comelec: Don't politicize Pacquiao parade

The Comelec, meanwhile, reminded candidates for national office not to use the outpouring of support for Pacquiao to their own advantage.

Comelec Commissioner Gregorio Larrazabal said the usual parade for Pacquiao should not be used by other candidates to push their own candidacies.

"Spare the event from politics," he said. "This is an event that belongs to the Filipino people. It cannot be claimed by any person, candidate, or political party."

Comelec spokesman James Jimenez added that there are proper avenues for candidates to promote themselves, such as campaign rallies. He said they may join the parade if they want, but must not post campaign posters and woo voters.

Local candidates, meanwhile, are exempted from the rule since the official campaign period for local bets has yet to start.

Jimenez said candidates who posted posters and streamers in venues where the Pacquiao-Clottey fight was shown are at risk of being disqualified. He added that candidates may only put their campaign materials in places provided for in the Fair Elections Act and during official political functions such as sorties.

Jimenez called on the public to report such cases by sending pictures of the posters, for example, so the Comelec can act accordingly. Once the violation is proven, the candidate will be disqualified and imprisoned from 1 to 6 years, since he or she committed an election offense. -- with a report from Ryan Chua, ABS-CBN News

"Lets just wait for his birthday announcement on who will get his endorsement, its April 25"

Aquino apologizes; Villar won’t explain Davao no-show

MANILA, Philippines—Liberal Party standard-bearer Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III made a public apology while Nacionalista Party (NP) bet Manny Villar appealed for “understanding” in response to the sharp words the two leading contenders received for skipping a forum organized by a religious sect leader in Davao City on Tuesday.

Campaigning in Zamboanga City Wednesday, Aquino aired his apology to Pastor Apollo Quiboloy, head of a sect called Kingdom of Jesus Christ, the Name Above Every Name, which claims millions of members and several radio stations.

“When I go to Davao I will seek an audience and explain to him, that it was something beyond my control,” said Aquino in a press conference at the Orchid Garden Hotel. “Getting a cold is something that I cannot schedule.”

Quiboloy, disappointed at the non-appearance of the top two contenders, had called them men with “no word of honor.”

Aquino said he had a cold after his visit to the Visayas last week which prevented him from flying to Davao on Tuesday, as he had promised Quiboloy.

“My doctor advised me to take medicines and he asked for at least two days of rest. I still have a cold at this time,” said Aquino. He said “there would have been no problem if he had everything under his control.”

But Aquino said he pushed through with his Zamboanga sortie Wednesday because he “could not hold it off anymore.” Aquino is set to go to Davao next week.

On the other hand, Villar, campaigning Wednesday in Kabacan, North Cotabato, did not reveal his reasons for not attending Quiboloy’s forum, adding, “We ask for your understanding.”

Before flying to Koronadal City, Villar told reporters he had many reasons—“a hundred reasons”—why he skipped Quiboloy’s forum as well as another one held at the Ateneo de Davao University.

“What happened should be left to us. We will just talk among ourselves,” he told reporters.

Villar said he had explained his decision to the organizers of the lawyers and businessmen’s forum, but did not elaborate.

“I have the same reason for both (forums), but I don’t want to specify. You know, the campaign exacts a heavy toll on the candidates, and sometimes it’s really hard for us to attend all the forums,” he said.

‘They blew it’

Meanwhile, in Naga City, veteran politician and Puwersa ng Masang Pilipino campaign manager Ernesto Maceda said the two top contenders lost their chance to get the religious group’s support.

“Pastor Quiboloy did not hide his displeasure and as far as I’m concerned, without meaning to preempt (Quiboloy’s group), that would imply that they’re out of contention as far as Quiboloy’s concerned for the moment,” Maceda said.

Maceda said only the PMP’s standard-bearer, deposed President Joseph Estrada, administration candidate Gilberto Teodoro and evangelist Brother Eddie Villanueva remain in the running for the endorsement of Quiboloy’s group.

But Estrada himself said he would not read too much into the situation.

“Medyo nagtampo lang siya (He was just a little upset),” Estrada said on Quiboloy’s reaction to the no-show of Aquino and Villar.


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Aquino's lead steadily falling: SWS chief

abs-cbnNEWS.com | 03/09/2010 2:13 PM

Mangahas: C-5 issue hurts Villar in Metro Manila

MANILA, Philippines (1st UPDATE) - The presidential surveys conducted by Social Weather Stations (SWS) since December 2009 show a consistent decline in support for Liberal Party (LP) standard-bearer Benigno 'Noynoy' Aquino III, according to SWS president Mahar Mangahas.

In an interview on ANC's Dateline Philippines on Tuesday, Mangahas said what's clear from the four presidential surveys conducted by SWS from December 5-10, 2009 to February 24-28 2010 is that Aquino's lead is now much smaller.

The latest SWS survey, commissioned by the newspaper BusinessWorld, and e-mailed Tuesday to news organizations by the camp of Nacionalista Party (NP) presidential bet Manny Villar, showed Aquino's lead down to only 2 percentage points, with Aquino at 36% and Villar at 34%.

"Ang talagang conclusion diyan ay napakaliit na [ang lead ni Aquino] compared to before. That's very clear," Mangahas said.

Aquino's lead over Villar was 19 points in December 5-10, 2009, 11 points in December 27-28, 2009, 7 points in January 21-24, 2010, and 2 points in February 24-28.

"If you look at our series, talagang steadily, steadily paliit ng paliit. So ngayon, nasa 2 (point lead si Aquino)," he added.

Mangahas disagreed with interpretations of the latest SWS survey results which described the two leading presidential candidates in a statistical tie.

Given the margin of error of 2%, Mangahas said Aquino may actually be leading by 4 percentage points.

He said the correct way of interpreting the results of the latest survey is that it's either a statistical tie or that Aquino has a 4 percentage point lead.

C-5 affects Villar in Metro Manila

Mangahas also said another important shift in the February 24-28, 2010 survey results is the drop in Villar's ratings in Metro Manila.

In the National Capital Region, Villar's ratings fell from 26% in January 21-24, 2010 to 20% in February 24-28, a drop of 6 percentage points.

"Villar fell in Metro Manila, and the second-placer is actually Erap," Mangahas said. "It's Noynoy, Erap and then Villar in Metro Manila."

"So para sa akin, this issue about the C-5 could be said to have had an effect in Metro Manila. Because doon siya talagang nahirapan, nahihirapan," he added.

However, Mangahas said Villar improved in the Visayas, which is why his overall ratings have been just steady since December.

"He [Villar] improved in Visayas kaya't medyo steady lang siya, at 1 puntos lang ang bawas niya unlike Noynoy who fell all around, in all parts of the country, kaya't nabawasan siya ng 6 points," he said.

He refused to say whether Villar's ads were responsible for the NP's survey ratings, adding that the SWS does not monitor ad spending.

"Hindi kasama yon sa analysis namin...at saka wala kaming special access sa mga ganoon (ads)," Mangahas said.

Asked why Aquino's ratings have fallen since December, Mangahas said he does not have the data that would explain the drop.

"We do not know the progress of the ads in all parts of the country. We don't have those additional bits of information," he said.

Mangahas said the SWS will have surveys in March, April and around a week before the May 10 elections.

If the last survey a week before May 10 would show the same results as the February 24-28, 2010 survey, Manghas said they would then say: "Well, we cannot call the winner because it's too small but it's a two-point lead and we have to say that at this point, mas llamado si Aquino ng konti."

The February 24-28, 2010 BW-SWS survey used face-to-face interviews with 2,100 registered voters. It has a margin of error of plus/minus 2%.

Villar, Aquino respond to SWS survey

Meanwhile, Villar said the results of the latest SWS polls are also reflected in the warm reception he and the rest of his team are getting in their sorties.

“Mas nagiging mainit ang pagtanggap sa atin saan man kami dumako at mas lalong nagiging buo ang grupo ng Nacionalista kasama ang aking running mate na si Loren Legarda,” he said in a statement.

He said he has been able to spread the word about what they intend to do if they win the polls through their sorties.

Villar said they are getting more support due to their message of hope plus a better grasp of his team's platform of government.

He added he was happy with the survey results and expressed hope he would soon overtake Aquino, who holds only a 2 percentage point lead.

Liberal Party campaign manager Florencio 'Butch' Abad, meanwhile, said the results of the SWS survey showed that their message of anti-corruption and good governance is holding.

“The campaign of Benigno Simeon “Noynoy” Aquino III is pleased with the results of the Social Weather Stations’ February 21 to 25 survey, which clearly shows that Aquino has retained his lead," he said.

“Despite our closest rival’s excessive, beyond-the-COMELEC-limit spending on TV ads and the obscenely funded propaganda machine, the people have maintained their trust in Noynoy Aquino’s candidacy," Abad said.

“What this survey tells us is that our message is holding and we must continue delivering that to places like the Samar Islands and Northern Luzon, where we see greater opportunities recruiting more supporters. For this purpose, the Aquino campaign intends to aggressively expand its volunteer base of 200,000 in these places," he added.

“Although the race has become tighter, we are confident that our message of change and freedom from corruption will hold sway in the end, and that the voters will make the right decision come the May elections," Abad said.

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Noynoy widens lead

Philstar.com - Saturday, March 6


MANILA, Philippines - Liberal Party (LP) bet Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III has widened his lead over Sen. Manuel Villar of the Nacionalista Party (NP) in the latest survey by Pulse Asia on presidential candidates for the May 10 elections.

Aquino obtained 36 percent against Villar’s 29 percent in the Feb. 21-25 survey results released yesterday.

Still coming in third was former President Joseph Estrada of the Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino-United Opposition with 18 percent, followed by the administration’s Gilberto Teodoro of Lakas-Kampi-CMD with seven percent.

Aquino improved his lead over Villar, with whom he was “statistically tied” in the January survey of Pulse Asia. Aquino then had 37 percent and Villar 35 percent.

Aquino gained momentum after Villar fell by six percentage points in February.

Estrada, on the other hand, posted the biggest gain of six percentage points in the latest survey.

Teodoro also improved his ratings, posting a gain of two points in the latest survey compared to January.

Pulse Asia said the other presidential candidates registered voter preference of seven percent or less.

Eddie Villanueva of Bangon Pilipinas came in fifth with two percent, followed by Sen. Richard Gordon of Bagumbayan Party with one percent.

The other candidates who posted less than one percent include Sen. Jamby Madrigal (0.3); environmentalist Nicanor Perlas (0.2 percent); Vetellano Acosta (0.04 percent); and Olongapo City councilor John Carlos de los Reyes of Ang Kapatiran Party (zero percent).

The survey, conducted from Feb. 21 to 25, had included Acosta before the Commission on Elections (Comelec) disqualified the KBL candidate last Thursday.

In the same survey, Aquino remains the favorite in the National Capital Region (NCR), obtaining 40 percent preference from among the upper socioeconomic classes ABC (43 percent) and D (36 percent).

Aquino and Villar received almost the same percentages in balance Luzon (33 percent Aquino; 31 percent Villar) and the Visayas (39 percent Aquino, 38 percent Villar) and among the poorest class E (36 percent Aquino; 33 percent Villar).

In Mindanao, 38 percent of respondents chose Aquino while 31 percent picked Estrada as their presidential bet.

Compared to the January 2010 survey, Pulse Asia said voter support for Aquino is virtually unchanged.

The survey also found that six percent of Filipino voters have yet to decide on their presidential preference or have no preferred candidate if the May 2010 elections were held during the survey period.

As in the previous survey, about the same number of voters with a presidential preference say that they opted for their candidate because he/she is not corrupt (26 percent) and cites his/her caring for the poor (22 percent).

Other reasons cited for preferring a candidate are that he/she can do/ is doing /will do something (14 percent); helps/is helping others (11 percent); is a good person (10 percent) and is used to governing/has experience (seven percent).

On the vice presidential bets, LP’s Sen. Manuel “Mar” Roxas II continued to lead with 43 percent of voter preference.

Villar’s running mate, Sen. Loren Legarda of the Nationalist People’s Coalition, came in second at 27 percent followed by Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay with 15 percent.

The other contenders who obtained voter support of four percent or less were former Metropolitan Manila Development Authority (MMDA) chairman Bayani Fernando (four percent); Lakas-Kampi-CMD bet actor Edu Manzano (two percent); former Securities and Exchange Commission chairman Perfecto Yasay (one percent); broadcaster Jay Sonza (one percent); and Dominador Chipeco (0.1 percent).

Seven percent of voters said they have no vice-presidential preference, Pulse Asia said.

Pulse Asia said Roxas has the advantage over his opponents across areas and socioeconomic classes except in balance Luzon and among the poorest socioeconomic class E, where voter support for him is statistically tied with that for Legarda.

Voter preference for Roxas is marginally higher in balance Luzon (36 percent versus 31 percent), while Legarda has the edge, although marginal, among the poorest class E (39 percent against 35 percent), the polling firm said.

Pulse Asia said preferences for the vice-presidential candidates are virtually unchanged since January, there being but marginal increases and marginal declines even among the top four contenders.

Binay and Fernando both posted marginal increases of two percentage points, while Roxas and Legarda registered marginal declines of four percentage points and one percentage point, respectively.

The non-commissioned survey used face-to-face interviews of 1,800 representative adults 18 years old and above with a plus or minus two percentage points error margin at the 95 percent confidence level.

Confidence level

Aquino and Roxas were both elated with the latest Pulse Asia survey, which they said reflected the people’s hope for change “rather than believe the lies being spread by those who want to destroy us.”

“I am happy because the survey shows the outpouring of support from the people who aim for real change in the country because I won’t stop until we are able to give our fellow Filipinos a leadership that is clean and can be trusted,” Aquino said.

Roxas, for his part, said the pre-election surveys were a strong indication of how voters would pick the country’s second highest elective official in this year’s national elections.

Villar, on the other hand, said he is still satisfied with the latest survey even after falling by six points in ratings against Aquino.

“I’m still happy about it. As I said earlier, as long as the lead is still in the single digit, I’m still happy,” Villar said at a press conference after meeting with local leaders in Davao City.

Legarda, for her part, said the surveys can be used as “gauge” in the campaign. She said surveys mean nothing compared with the support of the people attending their campaign sorties.

The NP said they remain unfazed by the drop in ratings by Villar.

NP spokesperson and senatorial candidate Gilbert Remulla said the elections are still three months away and anything can happen.

Remulla attributed the results of the latest survey to the commemoration of the 24th anniversary of the 1986 People Power revolution, which rekindled the memories of the late former President Corazon Aquino.

“But it should also be pointed out that the survey was conducted on the same week that the nation was commemorating EDSA 1, thus, people were remembering Noynoy’s mother Cory,” he said.

Remulla also pointed out Villar’s ratings also went down in another survey, the Taylor Nelson Sofres (TNS), as much as 41 points last month.

Aquino spokesman Edwin Lacierta said Remulla “tried to pull off another spin” in citing the TNS survey, and was simply trying to downplay the Pulse Asia survey by citing another.

“The numbers do not correspond with the money dole-out simply because the Filipino people are tired, they want change, and can now smell the stench of corruption no matter how expensive the perfume,” Lacierta said.

On the other hand, Villanueva’s Bangon Pilipinas party (BPP) said the numbers in the latest Pulse Asia survey revealing their presidential candidate in fifth place were “quite improbable.”

“Before the official start of the campaign, Bro. Eddie Villanueva was already at two percent. After visiting key cities and provinces, even Hong Kong where Bangon Pilipinas gathered the biggest crowd... the party just cannot simply believe that ratings would still remain at two percent,” the BPP said in a statement.

The BPP said the survey results run contrary to the outcome of the surveys by other social networks that showed Villanueva remains the popular choice, particularly among Facebook users.

The BPP cited Villanueva’s interviews with the media that he does not believe in surveys.

Villanueva had cited the cases of former President Fidel Ramos and detained Sen. Antonio Trillanes IV who were both lagging in surveys but won anyway. -With Aurea Calica, Marvin Sy, Evelyn Macairan, Christina Mendez - By Helen Flores (Philstar News Service, www.philstar.com)

Manila Bulletin - Monday, March 1

(Reuters) - Opposition senator Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino, son of the Philippines' democracy heroine Corazon "Cory" Aquino, said he may consider raising taxes if elected if it was clear the budget gap was unlikely to be cut quickly.

Here are some questions and answers on Aquino and his prospects:

HOW LIKELY IS AQUINO TO WIN?

Difficult to say. Aquino has kept his position as frontrunner in various opinion polls for the May presidential election, but his ratings suffered a big blow in January when the latest survey from independent pollster Pulse Asia Inc. showed him at 37 percent, down from 44 percent a month earlier.

His main rival, billionaire lawmaker Manuel "Manny" Villar, has been closing in on Aquino's lead. Villar's rating jumped 12 percentage points in the same poll last month, helped by his well-oiled ad campaign, pointing to a close race in the May 10 poll. Analysts say the election is still wide open, and that it is still too early to establish a trend more than two months away from the actual casting of ballots.

Some believe Aquino's popularity might be borne by media hype following the outpouring of public emotion when his mother died in August 2009 and the people's respect for his namesake father, who was assassinated upon his return in 1983 from political exile during the rule of strongman Ferdinand Marcos.

The hundreds of thousands of people who came out for the funeral of Aquino's mother, former President Cory Aquino, represent a huge vote bank, some analysts say.

Aquino has no executive experience and his record in his nine years as a lawmaker is not regarded as impressive.

Funding and organization could also be a problem since most other candidates started campaign preparations as early as 2007. Aquino's Liberal Party is a small organization, and is counting mostly on volunteers and donations from civil society groups.

WHAT ARE HIS ECONOMIC POLICIES LIKELY TO BE?

Aquino vowed on Saturday to go after tax evaders and big smugglers, a campaign that he hopes would collect 150 billion pesos ($3.3 billion) and raise the government's tax efficiency rate by 2 percentage points from the current level of around 13 percent.

He said he would strengthen an existing carrot-and-stick mechanism at the country's two main tax agencies to raise the Philippines' perenially weak revenues and push for higher salaries for these agencies to prevent workers from resorting to corrupt practices.

Aquino's action plan in his first 100 days as president includes forming a group to review possible changes to economic provisions in the Philippine constitution, one of Corazon Aquino's most important legacies to the Philippines during her term in office from 1986 to 1992.

Its political provisions specify term limits for elected officials, a reaction to Marcos' two decades in power, but it also has strongly nationalist economic provisions, including restrictions on foreign investment in some sectors and on foreigners owning land.

An economics graduate from the Jesuit-run Ateneo de Manila University, Aquino is running on an investor-friendly platform of transparent and good government, raising standards in education and improving tax collection by plugging leakages instead of imposing new revenue measures.
Manuel "Mar" Roxas, a Liberal Party colleague who has withdrawn his own nomination to make way for Aquino, was the preferred choice of markets for the presidency.

Roxas has served as trade secretary for two administrations and worked in an investment bank, while Aquino has only held legislative posts.

Roxas is standing as the Liberal Party's vice-presidential candidate and is campaigning along with Aquino.

WHAT WILL BE HIS POLITICAL PLATFORM?

Aquino's Liberal Party is strongly centrist and has been likened to the Democratic Party of the United States.

He has been opposed to President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, once an ally of his mother, after she became enmeshed in charges of corruption and election fraud.

He said on Saturday he believed it was not yet time for the Philippines to shift to a parliamentary system, a controversial issue due to moves by Arroyo's allies to extend her term.

Aquino is also risking the support of influential Catholic bishops, staunch allies of his mother, over his position on a controversial reproductive health bill in Congress. Aquino supports the measure being pushed by his party.

"I will not steal," Aquino has made a vow in his political advertisements aired on radio and television, promising a clean and honest government and holding the current government accountable for rampant corruption.

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Villar most trusted poll bet, survey reveals

Manila Bulletin - Wednesday, February 24

Nacionalista Party (NP) presidential candidate Senator Manuel Villar Jr. is the most trusted candidate in the May 10, 2010 elections, according to the latest Pulse Asia survey.

While Villar and rival Liberal Party standard-bearer Senator Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino III both enjoy majority trust ratings among the candidates vying for the presidency, the NP bet had a better trust rating of 70 percent, against the LP candidate's 64 percent.

This developed as nearly seven out of 10 Filipinos expressed distrust in President Arroyo, attaining the highest distrust rating of 68 percent since March, 2001.

The nationwide survey conducted from January 22 to 26 with 1,800 respondents showed that public distrust in President Arroyo remains the predominant sentiment toward her, four months before her term of office ends.

Based on the same survey, Villar's trust rating improved from the last survey released in December by the same agency, where it showed him and Aquino almost in a virtual tie with a margin of error of negative (-), positive (+) 2 points.

Aquino's trust rating in this survey dropped by 8 points, while the rate of undecided respondents went up to six percentage points to 23 percent.

The newest survey conducted last January 22-26 had at least 1,800 respondents and highlighted key political developments in the Philippines, including the impending retirement of Supreme Court Chief Justice Reynato Puno and Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) Chief of Staff Victor Ibrado and the issue of whether President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo should appoint their replacements or leave the task to the next president.

Notably, the survey was also done at a toxic time for Villar when the Senate Committee of the Whole deliberated on the committee report seeking his censure over the C-5 road extension project and the alleged attempt by his allies in the Senate to unseat Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile who chairs the said committee

The survey also came at a time when questions regarding the certainty of the automation of the May, 2010 elections amid delays in the delivery of the Precinct Count Optical Scan (PCOS) machines and the training of teachers for the automated election system (AES).

Coming in third in the ranking of the most trusted presidential candidates was former President Joseph Estrada with 33 percent, followed by administration bet former Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro, 32 percent.

In a statement, Villar welcomed the results of the survey which he likened to a "report card for public servants" like him.

"I am grateful to the Filipino people for continuing to put their trust in me and our candidacy.

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Is affiliation with Pres. GMA a bad move for Gibo?

Teodoro impresses MBC, tops mock poll
Manila Bulletin - Thursday, February 18

Officials of the Makati Business Club (MBC) claimed Thursday that Lakas Kampi CMD standard bearer Gilberto "Gibo" Teodoro Jr., who they have admired for his impressive credentials and untainted record in public service, could have been in the forefront of the presidential race for the May 10 elections if not for his association with President Arroyo.

"He's (Gibo) a very impressive person, he has impressive credentials but it's a pity that he is associated with somebody who, to our minds, is not particularly an impressive leader (Mrs. Arroyo)," Ramon del Rosario, MBC chairman, said in an interview.

Del Rosario, who served as finance secretary during the term of then President Fidel V. Ramos, made the comment about Teodoro after he appeared during the presidential candidates' forum hosted by the influential business organization at the Intercontinental Hotel in Makati City.

This developed as another campus in Mindanao has gone green for Teodoro after he topped another mock election at the Mindanao campus of the University of the Philippines.

Thirty-three percent of those who voted in the UP Mindanao mock election picked Teodoro, 45, and the 1989 Bar topnotcher, as the most competent and most qualified among the presidential candidates in the May 10 elections.

Senator Benigno Aquino III came in second with 24.4 percent, 20 percent for Sen. Richard Gordon, third with 20 percent, and Sen. Manny Villar, fourth with 13.3 percent. (Aris Ilagan)Officials of the Makati Business Club (MBC) claimed Thursday that Lakas Kampi CMD standard bearer Gilberto "Gibo" Teodoro Jr., who they have admired for his impressive credentials and untainted record in public service, could have been in the forefront of the presidential race for the May 10 elections if not for his association with President Arroyo. (Aris Ilagan)
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ABS-CBN - Saturday, February 20

MANILA, Philippines - Sen. Benigno 'Noynoy' Aquino III has regained the lead over Sen. Manuel Villar in the latest presidential survey conducted January 28-February 3 by Taylor Nelson Sofres (TNS).

According to the TNS survey obtained by ABS-CBN News' Ces Oreña Drilon, Aquino was chosen by 41.54% of 3,000 respondents while Villar was picked by 30.63%.

TNS is a global market research firm with an office in the Philippines.

Aquino and Villar were statistically tied in a Pulse Asia survey conducted from January 22 -26, or around a week before the TNS survey, with the Liberal Party bet garnering 37% and the Nacionalista Party (NP) standard-bearer getting 35%. (Read: Aquino, Villar tied in Pulse Asia survey)

Third in the Jan. 28-Feb. 3 TNS survey was former President Joseph Ejercito Estrada of the Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino (PMP) with 11.66%, statistically the same as in the last Pulse Asia survey where he got 12%.

Administration candidate Gilbert Teodoro of the Lakas-Kampi-CMD was fourth with 5.21%, the same as in the last Pulse Asia survey.

Bro. Eddie Villaneuva got 2%, Senator Richard Gordon got 1.7%, Senator Jamby Madrigal got 0.22%, also statistically the same as what they received in the January 22 to 26 Pulse Asia survey.

Villar ethics case as factor

The TNS survey was done around a week after a heated controversy over Villar's ethics case erupted in the Senate, which could be one reason for the changes in the ratings of the two leading presidential candidates.

The Senate committee of the whole's report accusing Villar of unethical conduct in connection with the C-5 road extension project was taken up during the plenary on January 25. The committee had ordered him to return over P6 billion in government funds that were allegedly wasted for the project. (Read: Senators clash in plenary over Villar ethics case)

On January 26, Senate President Enrile also accused Villar of trying to bribe him to change his stand on the issue. (Read: Enrile claims Villar tried to buy him off)

The Senate, however, failed to act on the report after Villar's supporters failed to show up on the last session day of the 14th Congress.

NP downplays survey results

The TNS survey was apparently commissioned by the Aquino camp.

Asked for his comment, NP spokesman and senatorial bet Gilbert Remulla said the report does not disclose how the questions were phrased and whether they were slanted for or against any candidate

"Alam namin na ito ay galing sa Liberal Party. Ayaw nilang banggitin 'yung pangalan eh. Dahil doon, hindi rin namin alam kung ano 'yung mga tanong, kung ano ang slant n'yan, kaya sa ganon ay hihintayin na lang namin ang magiging resulta ng survey ng SWS at Pulse Asia," Remulla said.

("We know this was commissioned by the Liberal Party. They don't want to disclose the name. We also do not know the questions, whether these were slanted...So, we'll just wait for the results of SWS [Social Weather Stations] and Pulse Asia.")

According to the TNS website, it first set up an office in the Philippines in 1983. It offers "full service operations covering all aspects of marketing research and consulting" and claims to be "No. 1 in the Philippines for customised market research."

"Almost 30 years of research experience has made us experts in understanding the Philippines trade and consumer environment. These insights are critical to helping our clients make their important business decisions," TNS Philippines says.

"TNS Philippines offers in-house field and data processing services backed by stringent quality control procedures to make sure the analysis and recommendations we deliver are accurate and timely," the firm says on its website. – report from Ces Drilon, ABS-CBN News

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