Erap overtakes Villar, Binay edges Loren: poll
abs-cbnNEWS.com
Posted at 05/03/2010 10:34 AM | Updated as of 05/03/2010 10:38 AM

MANILA, Philippines – Former President Joseph “Erap” Estrada has overtaken Sen. Manuel “Manny” Villar, Jr. to take second place in the presidential race, according to the latest Manila Standard Today (MST) pre-election survey.

The survey, which interviewed 2,500 registered voters nationwide from April 25-27, showed Liberal Party standard-bearer Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III in the lead with 38%, which is 16 percentage points above Estrada's rating of 22%. Villar was in 3rd place with 20%.

According to MST resident pollster Pedro Laylo, the negative attacks on Villar have taken a toll on his survey performance.

Other presidential bets, meantime, got single digit results: Gilbert “Gibo” Teodoro, Jr. (9%), Bro. Eddie Villanueva (3%) and Sen. Richard “Dick” Gordon (2%).

The survey had a margin of error of plus-minus 2%.

The new survey came less than a week after private pollster Pulse Asia released the results of its own pre-election survey. In the April 23-25 survey, Aquino gained 2 percentage points with 39% support, compared to 20% support for both Estrada and Villar.

Meanwhile, in the vice-presidential survey, Laylo said Makati Mayor Jejomar “Jojo” Binay has pulled away from Sen. Loren Legarda and is reportedly setting his sights on frontrunner Sen. Manuel “Mar” Roxas II.

Roxas still led the pack with 38% while Binay is at 28%. Legarda slipped to 3rd place with 20% followed by Edu Manzano (3%) and Bayani Fernando (2%). All the other candidates had ratings of 1% or lower.

The survey said 6% of voters were undecided about their choice for president while 7% were undecided on their vice-presidential bet.

Binay earlier surged past Legarda in the April 23-25 Pulse Asia survey. – With a report from Ces Drilon, ABS-CBN News

Noynoy still leads in survey commissioned by Villar ally


Presidential candidate Sen. Benigno “Noynoy" Aquino III (Liberal Party) remains on top in a recent survey commissioned by an ally of rival Sen. Manny Villar Jr. (Nacionalista Party) .

According to the results of the survey conducted from March 28 to 30 and purportedly commissioned by House Minority Floor Leader Ronaldo Zamora, Villar scored 29 percentage points, or eight points behind Aquino’s 37.

The NP claimed the survey was from Social Weather Station (SWS), although the poll firm has yet to confirm it. Calls made by GMANews.TV to its office were not answered.

In the SWS survey last month that was commissioned by BusinessWorld, Villar got 28 percent while Aquino got 37 percent.

In a statement, the NP still expressed exultation over the latest survey, saying it was a “leap" from the 12-point lead enjoyed by Aquino in the March 21 to 28 survey by rival pollster Pulse Asia, where the LP bet got 37 percent compared to Villar’s 25.

“That’s a leap of four points [25 percent in Pulse Asia to 29 percent in SWS], immediately after the field personnel of the other survey firm were just wrapping up their own results," said NP senatorial candidate and spokesperson Gilbert Remulla in a statement.

“Misleading the public"

The LP, meanwhile, castigated NP for allegedly trying to mislead the public by hyping on the supposed cut in Aquino's lead.

In a text message, LP spokesman and Quezon Rep. Erin Tañada said if the Zamora-commissioned survey is true, then it showed that Villar gained only a point – from 28 percent to 29 percent – compared to the SWS poll that preceded it.

“You do not compare survey results from different survey companies," he pointed out, adding that the four-point cut in Aquino’s lead that the LP stated in its statement was actually based on the results of SWS and Pulse Asia surveys.

“Again the NP is trying to mislead the public," Tañada said. “Obviously the NP is desperately trying to look for ways to cover up the fact that the lead of Senator Aquino seems to be stable if you compared the commissioned and the non-commissioned surveys of the SWS."

He added that the one-point gain by Villar in the two SWS surveys “is within the margin of error and is negligible."

The LP has accused Villar of being the “secret candidate" of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo.

Other presidential bets

The Zamora-commissioned poll also showed former president Joseph Estrada (Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino) falling to 17 percent from previous 19 percent, and administration bet Gilberto Teodoro (Lakas-Kampi-CMD) picking up two points to score eight percent.

The statement did not indicate the preference ratings for other presidential aspirants Sen. Richard Gordon (Bagumbayan), evangelist Eddie Villanueva (Bangon Pilipinas), Sen. Jamby Madrigal (independent), environmentalist Nicanor Perlas (independent), and Olongapo City councilor John Carlos delos Reyes (Ang Kapatiran). - KBK, GMANews.TV

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ABS-CBN - Saturday, February 20

MANILA, Philippines - Sen. Benigno 'Noynoy' Aquino III has regained the lead over Sen. Manuel Villar in the latest presidential survey conducted January 28-February 3 by Taylor Nelson Sofres (TNS).

According to the TNS survey obtained by ABS-CBN News' Ces Oreña Drilon, Aquino was chosen by 41.54% of 3,000 respondents while Villar was picked by 30.63%.

TNS is a global market research firm with an office in the Philippines.

Aquino and Villar were statistically tied in a Pulse Asia survey conducted from January 22 -26, or around a week before the TNS survey, with the Liberal Party bet garnering 37% and the Nacionalista Party (NP) standard-bearer getting 35%. (Read: Aquino, Villar tied in Pulse Asia survey)

Third in the Jan. 28-Feb. 3 TNS survey was former President Joseph Ejercito Estrada of the Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino (PMP) with 11.66%, statistically the same as in the last Pulse Asia survey where he got 12%.

Administration candidate Gilbert Teodoro of the Lakas-Kampi-CMD was fourth with 5.21%, the same as in the last Pulse Asia survey.

Bro. Eddie Villaneuva got 2%, Senator Richard Gordon got 1.7%, Senator Jamby Madrigal got 0.22%, also statistically the same as what they received in the January 22 to 26 Pulse Asia survey.

Villar ethics case as factor

The TNS survey was done around a week after a heated controversy over Villar's ethics case erupted in the Senate, which could be one reason for the changes in the ratings of the two leading presidential candidates.

The Senate committee of the whole's report accusing Villar of unethical conduct in connection with the C-5 road extension project was taken up during the plenary on January 25. The committee had ordered him to return over P6 billion in government funds that were allegedly wasted for the project. (Read: Senators clash in plenary over Villar ethics case)

On January 26, Senate President Enrile also accused Villar of trying to bribe him to change his stand on the issue. (Read: Enrile claims Villar tried to buy him off)

The Senate, however, failed to act on the report after Villar's supporters failed to show up on the last session day of the 14th Congress.

NP downplays survey results

The TNS survey was apparently commissioned by the Aquino camp.

Asked for his comment, NP spokesman and senatorial bet Gilbert Remulla said the report does not disclose how the questions were phrased and whether they were slanted for or against any candidate

"Alam namin na ito ay galing sa Liberal Party. Ayaw nilang banggitin 'yung pangalan eh. Dahil doon, hindi rin namin alam kung ano 'yung mga tanong, kung ano ang slant n'yan, kaya sa ganon ay hihintayin na lang namin ang magiging resulta ng survey ng SWS at Pulse Asia," Remulla said.

("We know this was commissioned by the Liberal Party. They don't want to disclose the name. We also do not know the questions, whether these were slanted...So, we'll just wait for the results of SWS [Social Weather Stations] and Pulse Asia.")

According to the TNS website, it first set up an office in the Philippines in 1983. It offers "full service operations covering all aspects of marketing research and consulting" and claims to be "No. 1 in the Philippines for customised market research."

"Almost 30 years of research experience has made us experts in understanding the Philippines trade and consumer environment. These insights are critical to helping our clients make their important business decisions," TNS Philippines says.

"TNS Philippines offers in-house field and data processing services backed by stringent quality control procedures to make sure the analysis and recommendations we deliver are accurate and timely," the firm says on its website. – report from Ces Drilon, ABS-CBN News

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Aquino still tops survey; opponents catching up

LIBERAL PARTY (LP) standard-bearer Senator Benigno Simeon "Noynoy" C. Aquino III is still the first choice among presidential aspirant if elections were held today, according to a recent noncommissioned survey conducted by Pulse Asia, Inc., but his opponents are starting to advance in the ratings.

Results of the Pre-Election National Survey held Dec. 8-10 showed that the rating of the only son of democracy icon the late former president Corazon C. Aquino was virtually unchanged at 45% from 44% in October.

Second-place Senator Manuel B. Villar, Jr. of the Nacionalista Party (NP) had 23% from 19%, followed by deposed president Joseph "Erap" E. Estrada (Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino) at 19% from 11%, the biggest gainer with an eight-point jump.

Administration bet former Defense secretary Gilberto "Gibo" C. Teodoro, Jr. of the Lakas-Kabalikat ng Malayang Pilipino-Christian Muslim Democrats had 5%, up three points, while Senator Richard "Dick" J. Gordon (Bagumbayan-New Volunteers for a New Philippines Party) and Eduardo "Eddie" C. Villanueva (Bangon Pilipinas Movement) were tied at 1% from 0.3% and 1%, respectively.

A percentage preferred other candidates whose names were not provided in the survey, while 4% either did not give or refused to answer or were undecided.

The survey also found that being pro-poor (27%) and having a clean record (21%) were the top reasons for the respondents’ choices for president. Other qualification are good person (12%); can do something, is doing something or will do something and helps or helping others (11%); governing or has experience (8%); knowledgeable or intelligent (6%); listens to people (3%); and other factors (2%).

"The survey results validate our belief that the Filipino people continue to support our campaign for an honest government," said Edwin Lacierda, spokesman of Mr. Aquino.

Speaking on behalf of Mr. Villar, NP spokesman and former Cavite Rep. Gilbert C. Remulla said they are "confident" that the trend "will continue and the gap [between Messrs. Aquino and Villar] will close in the next few months."

"The situation is very volatile," he added.

Former Senate president Ernesto M. Maceda, spokesman of Mr. Estrada, said: "This confirms what we have been saying before that the reason Erap’s ratings were low is because there was a notion that Erap was not running," referring to legal questions on the ex-leader’s eligibility to run due to a constitutional ban on reelection.

"If and when it [disqualification against Erap] is finally ruled by the Commission on Elections and the Supreme Court, his ratings would peak," said Mr. Maceda.

For Mr. Teodoro, Deputy Presidential Spokesman Gary B. Olivar said: "This is not yet the basis for the actual elections. We are confident that the more people see them, the more they get popular."

Mr. Gordon said the survey "really favors those who have announced much earlier and those who have been spending a lot of money already and it does not favor those who tried to follow the law."

"However, I am not discouraged, but encouraged. It is a fact that the others have gone down; we intend to go up, and we will go up."

Tight VP race

Meanwhile, LP bet Senator Manuel "Mar" A. Roxas II and Senator Loren B. Legarda of the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC) were virtually tied at the top in the vice-presidential survey, with 39% and 37%, respectively.

Close to four out of 10 Filipinos are supporting Mr. Roxas and Ms. Legarda, running mate of Mr. Villar in the 2010 polls, Pulse Asia said. Mr. Roxas gained two points from the previous survey while Ms. Legarda 14 points.

The polling firm added that Ms. Legarda is the "only vice-presidential candidate who registered a significant change in voter preference since October."

Makati Mayor Jejomar "Jojo" C. Binay, Mr. Estrada’s running mate, placed third with 14% from 13%. He was followed by former Metropolitan Manila Development Authority chairman Bayani F. Fernando, running mate of Mr. Gordon; and newcomer actor/game show host Eduardo "Edu" B. Manzano, running mate of Mr. Teodoro, at 2% each.

Other vice-presidential bets (names not provided) obtained 1%, while 4% did not give or refused to answer or were undecided.

Mr. Roxas, former Trade secretary, said he was "thankful" to the people who preferred him and added that the survey will serve as an "inspiration to continue to work hard for our people."

NPC spokesman and Valenzuela Rep. Rexlon T. Gatchalian said they "expected" the survey results, seeing as improvement the "timely platforms of governance" of Ms. Legarda such as climate change and protection of the environment.

In response to Mr. Binay’s ratings, Mr. Maceda said: "We are still hopeful that in due time, he will get the chance of winning."

Senate race

In the same survey, Senator Jose "Jinggoy" E. Estrada led the senatorial aspirants with 55.1%.

Following closely is Senator Ramon "Bong" Revilla, Jr. (52.7%); Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago (51.4%); former Senate president Franklin M. Drilon (48.4%); Senator Pilar Juliana "Pia" S. Cayetano (43.1%); former Socioeconomic Planning secretary Ralph G. Recto (43.1%); Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile (42.7%); former senators Sergio "Serge" D. Osmeña III and Vicente "Tito" C. Sotto III (both with 40.2%); Ilocos Norte Rep. Ferdinand "Bongbong" R. Marcos, Jr., 31%; and Bukidnon Rep. Teofisto "TG" L. Guingona III, 28.6%.

The statistically probable winners are businessman Jose "Joey" P. de Venecia III, 24.3%; Senator Manuel "Lito" M. Lapid, 23.1%; and Muntinlupa Rep. Rozzano Rufino "Ruffy" B. Biazon, 22.9%.

Eighty names were provided based on the official report of the Commission on Elections of those who filed their certificates of candidacy as of midnight of Dec. 1.

The survey had a sample of 1,800 adults.

The significant events that occurred during the conduct of the survey were the declaration of martial law in portions of Maguindanao, the joint session of Congress to discuss the proclamation, and the filing of petitions at the Supreme Court assailing martial law, among others. -- Bernard U. Allauigan

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